To The Moon

$Axon Enterprise, Inc.(AXON)$ 🍋🚔 Shorts in Danger: AXON’s AI Breakout Could Deliver a Market-Shaking Squeeze 🚀🍋

From $10K to $13.7M: The Unmatched Compounding Machine

I’m leaning into Axon Enterprise with deliberate conviction. This is the second-best performing stock of the last 25 years, turning $10,000 at its 2001 IPO into $13.7M today. CAGR has been extraordinary across timeframes: 34.6% since inception, 23.8% over 20 years, 42.0% over 15 years, 36.65% over 10 years, and 50.0% over the last 5 years. Koyfin plots long-term total return at +128,307.08% with a 34.57% CAGR across 24.09 years. This is the definition of operational excellence compounded over decades.

The $150M AI Quarter That’s Rewriting Axon’s Playbook

Q2 revenue surged 33% to $669M, beating consensus by $28M. Adjusted EPS landed at $2.12 versus $1.45 expected. Beyond the beat, Axon secured the largest state and local contract in U.S. history, the two largest penitentiary contracts ever, its biggest international deal in Africa, and $150M of AI-driven bookings in the quarter. The transition from monopoly hardware to recurring subscription software is accelerating, and operating leverage is flowing through to EPS at speed.

Reading the Pattern Trading Map to $1,100

I am tracking the weekly chart’s oversized pattern trading structure pointing toward $1,100. Price is respecting a long-term golden trendline from the $200 zone in 2023, acting as the current acceleration channel. On the daily, we’ve cleared prior resistance and touched $885.92. On the 4H, a Keltner/Bollinger breakout took us from ~$750 to ~$880, with tight consolidation near $870.97. RSI(6) = 75.17 and RSI(12) = 67.32 signal strong but not exhausted momentum. MACD(12,26,9) shows DIF = 60.36 over DEA = 58.02, maintaining a bullish cross. My risk line is $830; lose it, and I step aside. Hold it, and the path to $950, then $1,100, remains open.

Shorts Are Cornered, and the Clock Is Ticking

Short interest is 503.2K shares with just 1.0 day to cover as of 31Jul25, down sharply from peaks near 7.99 days earlier this year. Daily short volume on 07Aug25 hit 105.1K shares, split NASDAQ 58.95K and NYSE 46.14K, with a short ratio of 14.99%. Low float pressure, a thin options chain, and a tight consolidation just under breakout levels create the conditions for a violent squeeze if $885.92 breaks.

Premium-Selling Strategies in a Low-VIX Tape

For defined-risk income, the 19Sep25 bull put spread by selling the 810p and buying the 800p brings in ~$2.25 per spread, or $225 premium per 100-share contract, with a max risk of $775. That’s a 29% potential return in just over a month if spot remains above $810. Breakeven is $807.75. I’ll exit if spot loses $830 or the spread’s value widens from $2.25 to ~$5.50. Bid-ask is wide and volume is thin, so execution discipline is critical.

Is This the Next Rule-of-60 Hypergrowth Re-Rate?

On the EV/NTM Revenue vs Rule-of-40 regression, Axon plots around Rule-of-55 territory alongside $ZS, $SNOW, $CYBR, $CRWD, and $PAY. $PLTR sits as the Rule-of-80 outlier, $NET trades rich versus its fit. Axon’s valuation remains aligned with fundamentals; no froth, just justified multiple on hypergrowth and margin profile. In a choppy macro tape with ISM Services at 50.1 and tariff noise hitting other sectors, Axon’s +16% post-earnings move versus $IT’s -27% plunge shows its relative resilience and uncorrelated growth story.

The Forward Catalyst Question

With $150M in AI bookings this quarter, the largest U.S. municipal and international contracts ever signed, and SaaS mix accelerating, could Axon push its Rule-of-40 score above 60, and if so, will the market award a peer-level EV/NTM uplift that drives price from the $880s into the $1,100 pattern trading apex before year-end?

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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀

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