This Week’s Sell Call Outlook
Last week, institutions ran bear call spreads at -185+192.5 and -182.5+192.5. After rolling, this week’s bear call spreads are at -187.5+197.5 and -185+190 (highlighted in blue in the chart). Based on experience, the stock will likely continue its high-level range-bound action this week.
In the coming weeks, an upward breakout is possible if there are no major macro negatives—hitting 200 would just need a final push. Someone already opened 6,000 contracts of long-dated 200 calls $NVDA 20271217 200.0 CALL$ as a pre-emptive move.
This week, keep a close eye on put option open interest—there are renewed bets on a black swan crash, which is understandable since volatility is back at lows. But without surprises, 175 will likely hold as support.
Tesla is looking extremely strong this week.
Nothing else needs to be said—just looking at the sheer number of tightly structured spreads being opened, you can tell institutions are very wary of getting squeezed out.
Last week’s institutional bear call spreads were at -317.5+337.5, -320+345, -322.5+342.5, and -325+345.
After rolling, this week’s bear call spreads are at -337.5+357.5, -340+360, -342.5+367.5, -345+367.5, -347.5+375, and also outright sell calls at 352.5 (blue highlights in the chart).
Outright sell calls may mean institutions think the spreads aren’t worth it and that Tesla will have a hard time breaking 352.5 this week—though personally, I’m not so sure.
On the put side, there’s a big sell put order at 320 $TSLA 20251017 320.0 PUT$ , with a notional value over $25 million, which further confirms the strong trend this week.
Last week, institutional bear call spreads were at -167.5+177.5.
After rolling, this week’s bear call spreads are at -185+195 and -180+190.
Last week saw a short squeeze, so institutions raised their strikes to guard against another squeeze this week.
Support is seen at 165.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Last week, institutional bear call spreads rolled from -180+187.5 to -187.5+192.5—very close to being squeezed, not sure what the logic is.
The put side is mostly seeing sell-to-open trades, likely due to the strong earnings report.
A great candidate for sell puts—price is trending back toward 220, so selling the 210 put looks attractive. Call option positioning is targeting above 240.
Last week, institutional bear call spreads were at -332.5+360 and -330+352.5.
This week, bear call spreads are at -325+352.5 and -315+340.
Unless there’s a major drop in crypto stocks this week, these spreads (like PLTR) could be at risk of getting squeezed. This probably also hints that CRCL’s earnings are just average and won't move COIN much.
Earnings were just so-so, similar to COIN this quarter. Consider selling calls above 200.
Trades: Sold PLTR 180 puts $PLTR 20250815 180.0 PUT$ .
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