To The Moon

Just as I had spelt out in my Mon, 11 Aug 2025 post, US market was jittery on the run up to CPI inflation report release. Click here ! for details. Help Repost so that more will know ok. Thanks.

Across the board all 3 major indexes fell — the Dow ends 200 points lower, S&P 500 fell as well and Nasdaq snapped a 3-day winning streak.

By the time US market called it a day: (see above)

• DJIA: -0.45% (-200.52 to 43,975.09).

• S&P 500: -0.25% (-16.00 to 6,373.45). Posted 15 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows.

• Nasdaq: -0.30% (-64.62 to 21,385.40). Recorded 73 new 52-week highs and 121 new lows.

On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.18-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 251 new highs and 98 new lows on the NYSE.

On the Nasdaq, declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio.

Lastly trading volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 15.5 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 18.3 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions.

US-China Tariffs Extension.

US market largely ignored Trump’s decision on Monday to extend his 90-day pause on the higher levies on Chinese goods; hours before they expired and were due to snap back to triple-digit rates.

Supposed everyone is fully aware that US will not be able to endure the 145% tariffs levied on Chinese exports.

Neither could China survived the 125% reciprocal tariffs on US exports.

This as US-China trade negotiation continues to finalize the details between the world’s 2 largest economies.

Meanwhile, India is still in dispute (with US) over the trade terms & conditions, and refuses to back down on some of it.

Ideally, if China is the only country left of a trade deal, it would have given US a stronger position.

Because China is not the only country without a trade pact, US has less leverage when negotiating with China.

Interest Rate Cut.

In contrast, investors are betting on an upcoming September 2025 interest rate cuts and counting on it to counteract the drag from tariffs.

Even the latest Fedwatch tool is pointing towards that direction. (see below)

• The probability of remaining status quo has fallen to 15.5% from July’s 56.8%.

• While probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 84.5% from July’s 43.2%.

Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Chief investment officer, Brent Schutte best summed it up the situation as:

• It is premature to assume that the Fed will definitely cut interest rate by -0.25%.

• Open questions about tariffs’ still need to be addressed eg. (1) degree / extent of tariff impacts and (2) how long it takes for tariffs to work its way thru US economy etc...

Sectors Performances.

Overall the 3 sectors that performed the worst & best were:

• Worst performers: XLE (energy), XLRE (real estate), and XLI (industrial).

• Best performers: XLV (healthcare), XLY (consumer discretionary) and XLC (communication services).

Most Oversold AI Stock.

Apart from a jittery US market, Monday also saw a popular AI stock - $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$ plummeted around -25% following the release of disappointing preliminary quarterly results. (see below)

The company forecasted first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of about $70 million, which was significantly below analyst expectations of $99 million and represented a -19% YoY decline.

CEO Thomas Siebel described the sales results as "completely unacceptable," attributing the shortfall to the disruptive impact of a corporate reorganization and his ongoing health issues, that have limited his ability to manage operations effectively.

Revenue miss, combined with an expected widening operating loss (due to the reorganization and other challenges), severely shook investor confidence.

AI's price drop was compounded by CEO Siebel's announcement that he would step down once a successor is found, adding leadership uncertainty.

Despite strong revenue growth in previous years, this setback has raised concerns about C3.ai's ability to compete effectively in the AI sector, where peers are moving toward profitability while C3.ai’s losses mount.

However, some analysts believe this dip could present a buying opportunity for long-term investors willing to endure volatility, given the company's moderate operating performance and financial health.

With reorganization is largely complete, and management transition underway, that could stabilize the company.

Still, cautious investors should be aware of risks related to (a) leadership changes, (b) growing losses, and (c) intense competition in the AI market.

In short, C3.ai’s sharp fall on Mon, 11 Aug 2025 reflects serious current challenges but also leaves room for potential recovery if and when, the company successfully executes its restructuring and find a strong new leader.

Long-term gains may be possible, but the outlook remains uncertain and investors should be prepared for continued volatility and risk.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• Will LCID Escape Its Penny Stock Status ? Tue, 12 August. Pick post.

• Tue CPI Inflation: US Market Rally Killer ? Mon, 11 August. Pick post.

• TSLA Empire Cracking Or Rough Patch Only ? Mon, 11 August. Pick post.

• Do you think US market will be able to remain positive and recover from yesterday’s loss?

• Do you think now is the time to “buy the dip” on C3.ai stock, despite its current headwinds?

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