To The Moon

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 🔥📈💥 Coinbase Rejected at Weekly Tenkan, Yet CalPERS Doubles Down: Bullish Pause or Credibility Reset? 💥📈🔥

Market Temperature

Crypto sentiment is at a perfect 100: bullish across the board, while total crypto market cap stands at approximately $4.15 trillion (coincodex.com). On-chain, elite Bitcoin wallets (≥ 10 BTC) are quietly accumulating while retail wallets fade, signaling silent institutional accumulation beneath bearish retail sentiment (yellow.com).

Chart Breakdown

I’m tactically cautious, because $COIN is trapped between weekly Tenkan and Kijun lines; today’s textbook Tenkan rejection signals a potential liquidity flush, not a breakout. RSI sits mid-range without bullish divergence; MACD remains stalled just below its signal line, while Ichimoku structure stays neutral, with the price above cloud but capped momentum. Keltner and Bollinger bands are narrowed, implying range compression and imminent volatility squeeze; this isn’t divergence, it’s detachment awaiting direction.

Segment Revenues

Alt-season is underway: Ethereum is up ~80 % since June, and with over 250 tokens plus Base integration, Coinbase stands to harvest outsized fee growth. Bernstein states “Alt rally has commenced and Coinbase will be the biggest beneficiary,” a direct nod to this thesis. Staking contributes over 10 % of revenue, and Base sequencer fees are trending toward $75 million.

Flow & Institutional Moves

CalPERS added 98,827 COIN shares in Q2, pushing its holdings to 332,791; massive institutional conviction. Meanwhile, institutions now account for 75 % of Bitcoin volume on Coinbase amid a 96 %-priced probability of a Fed rate cut in September. Regulatory tailwinds like the 401(k) crypto inclusion order further tilt flows to institutional hands.

Valuation Check

At ~$328, COIN is ~21.8 % below its 52-week high. The stock’s had 62 moves >5 % over the past year, with ATR around ~6 %; volatility remains potent. This is a spring coiling, with alt and staking revenue growth mispriced.

Analyst PTs & Sentiment

Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani lifted target by ~65 %, calling COIN “the most misunderstood company in our crypto coverage universe.” William Blair initiated coverage with “Outperform,” and legislative clarity via the Genius and Digital Asset Market Clarity acts adds conviction. The Trump-era 401(k) crypto inclusion plan is another compelling demand vector.

Short Interest & Flow

Short interest recently fell to ~10.27 million shares (~4.9 % of float), with days to cover at ~0.7: a decline from ~6.3 % and 1-day covers in July (marketbeat.com). That retreat in bearish bets hints retail capitulation and less downside pressure, fewer short hands to force us lower.

My Trade Plan

If COIN reclaims weekly Tenkan on volume, I’ll scale in long, targeting 360–380; if rejected again, I’ll rotate into ETH or other institutional favorites. Stop-risk sits just under the mid-cloud (~300): a close below flips my bias, shorting into congestion. Prove me wrong.

Conclusion

We’re at a tactical tug of war: alt-season euphoria, institutional accumulation, and regulatory clarity clash with technical compression at Tenkan. Break it upstairs, and momentum cascade follows; fail, and range fatigue drags the stock sideways or lower. I’m watching with unwavering conviction.

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