Waiting to bottom fish at 100. Most of the new put positions are still bearish with strikes above 100.
On the call side, most open interest comes from selling (bearish), and the strikes are all over the place—no clear direction.
NVDA is still trading in the 175–185 range this week. New put positions suggest the stock could dip below 175 but stay above 170 next week.
This week’s close should be a repeat of last Friday—no surprises.
Institutions are opening bear call spreads at 360–365, which is a more hedged version of my own sell call yesterday. Same expectation: TSLA should close below 360 this week.
Put option flows show the market expects support above 320, but I’m not considering bullish sell puts for now.
Institutions closed out this week’s -227.5 call +235 call spread, and rolled to next week’s -237.5 call +245 call and -240 +250 spreads. You can consider selling puts on Apple if it dips.
Institutions got squeezed on spreads this week and had to roll: closed out this week’s -175 call +182.5 call, and rolled to -192.5 call +200 call for this week’s expiry.
Interesting to note: several bull call spreads opened for next week—187.5–200, 190–205, 185–200.
AMD has an easier path to 200 than NVDA, but I’m skeptical about a breakout next week—best to stay on the sidelines for now.
SPY option activity looks normal. Put hedges are targeting a pullback to 610.
On Thursday, there was a big VIX call buy—22 strike, $VIX 20251119 22.0 CALL$ , with $8.03 million notional. Other than that, no major bets on a volatility spike, so wait and see.
Today’s trade: Sell call $NVDA 20250815 185.0 CALL$
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