To The Moon

A quarter that put the sparkle back

I’m exploring whether Celsius’s blockbuster second quarter and acquisition-driven growth set the stage for another doubling in the second half of 2025. After a year where the brand’s growth engine felt like it was idling, the company has come roaring back with numbers that made even the most jaded beverage analyst sit up. Revenue in the latest quarter grew 9% in the core Celsius brand, while group sales surged thanks to the Alani Nu acquisition, whose retail sales leapt 129% year-over-year. Net profit not only improved—it roughly doubled market expectations, a rare occurrence in a sector where margins are often squeezed tighter than a soda can in a vice.

The market liked what it saw. $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ shares are up 115% year-to-date, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 9.98% gain. With the stock now sitting just shy of its 52-week high of $57.14, the question is whether this pace can be sustained—or even accelerated—into year-end.

Alani Nu: potential, but proof still needed

The most significant catalyst, in my view, is the integration of Alani Nu into Celsius’s distribution and brand architecture. But let’s temper the enthusiasm. That triple-digit sales growth, while impressive, may owe more to Alani Nu’s pre-acquisition momentum than to anything Celsius has done so far. Revenue synergies, supply-chain efficiencies, and cash-flow benefits usually take several quarters—sometimes years—to fully materialise. The real test will come when the novelty wears off and both brands must deliver sustained growth within the same operating framework.

That said, Alani Nu still offers Celsius something strategic—deeper penetration into premium, brand-loyal consumer segments and a broadened shelf footprint in high-traffic retail channels. Retailers reward velocity, and pairing two high-turnover brands gives Celsius more bargaining power. But until integration benefits show up in margins and cash flow, the masterstroke label feels premature.

Here’s how Celsius’s fizz stacks up against the rest of the cooler.

Market share momentum meets the reality check of premium pricing

Core Celsius: growing, but is it keeping up?

Nine per cent revenue growth in the core Celsius range is strategically important, signalling the brand has regained consumer momentum without over-relying on acquisitions. But in the energy drink category, where competitors like Ghost are clocking far higher growth rates, 9% feels modest. In absolute terms, $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ is selling more cans, but in relative terms, it may be conceding market share to faster-growing rivals. That’s a competitive signal worth tracking, because in this space, brand heat can cool quickly if consumers start shifting to newer labels with sharper marketing hooks.

When the fizz meets the fast lane

Margins under pressure

Aluminium costs remain elevated, eating into gross profit. At the same time, marketing spend is climbing to support brand expansion and defend share in an increasingly crowded market. That’s fine when revenue growth outpaces spend, but if sales momentum slows, operating leverage can work against you quickly. Even a 100-basis-point drop in operating margin would shave more than $15 million off EBITDA at current revenue levels.

This is why I think margin resilience should be a bigger focus for investors than it currently is. If aluminium costs don’t ease and marketing intensity remains high, sustaining the current 17.22% operating margin could be a stretch—especially as Celsius juggles two growth-hungry brands.

The competitive reality

The energy drink aisle is getting noisier by the quarter. Established players like $Monster Beverage(MNST)$ and Red Bull aren’t giving up space, while insurgents such as Ghost, C4, Prime Energy and ZOA are muscling in with targeted campaigns and strong influencer backing. Retailers, meanwhile, are experimenting with private-label functional drinks, which threaten to undercut on price. In this environment, holding premium shelf space is a costly fight—one that requires constant brand investment and retailer incentives. For Celsius, the battle is not just about growing; it’s about growing faster than the competition while defending high-value placement.

Valuation and the doubling debate

Valuation is where optimism must meet reality. With an enterprise value-to-revenue ratio of 9.32 and EV/EBITDA above 84, the market isn’t just pricing in strong execution—it’s pricing in near-perfection. For Celsius to double from here, it would need not only to meet lofty expectations but to exceed them convincingly. That means continuing to post outsized revenue growth, expanding margins despite cost pressures, and proving the Alani Nu integration is more than a short-term sales boost.

This is a very high bar. At these multiples, even very good execution might not be enough to drive a doubling in the share price. Exceptional performance would be required.

Short interest: a double-edged sword

Short interest sits at 14.38% of the float—a level worth more than a passing mention. In a momentum-driven stock, this can fuel extreme moves in either direction. Strong results could trigger short covering and accelerate gains. But if growth wobbles or margins falter, the shorts could be rewarded quickly, deepening any pullback. In other words, volatility is almost guaranteed; the direction is not.

My verdict

Celsius has reignited its growth story, with the Alani Nu acquisition adding optionality and the core brand finding its rhythm again. The momentum is real, but so are the risks. Margin pressures loom larger than the market may be factoring in, the integration benefits of Alani Nu still need to be proven, competitive intensity is rising, and the core brand’s growth rate lags some peers.

The chart tells its own story — and it’s anything but flat.

Technicals warn: the fizz could spike—or fizzle

Could the stock double again in the second half of 2025? Possible—particularly if integration synergies emerge faster than expected, margins hold firm, and competitive share is defended. But probable? Only if $Celsius Holdings, Inc.(CELH)$ delivers something beyond exceptional. For now, I see a story worth owning if you believe in the category’s long-term growth, but one that demands close monitoring of costs, market share trends, and competitive moves. This is a drink with plenty of fizz—just don’t forget it can go flat faster than you think.

Growth’s race has more than one finish line

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