To The Moon

In this article, I am going to share how I see ONDS $Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ as a speculative, high-upside technology name worth watching. Below is a deep dive in my voice — what excites me, what worries me, and why I've begun accumulating it.

Stock Introduction & Basic Snapshot

Ondas Holdings Inc., ticker ONDS, is listed on the NASDAQ. 

ONDS

The company operates through two main business units: Ondas Networks and Ondas Autonomous Systems (which includes drone and robotics solutions). 

Its mission: bring industrial-grade wireless connectivity and autonomous data/robotic systems to infrastructure, defense, critical operations, and utility sectors. 

As of recent reports, ONDS is still unprofitable (negative EPS) but showing strong top-line growth and increased order backlog. 

So in short: this is a small-cap, high-volatility, deep-tech / infrastructure play. It's not yet a stable dividend stock, but it has optionality if things go right.

Company's Main Products & Strengths

To understand what makes ONDS interesting, I break it down by its two arms:

1. Ondas Networks (Industrial Wireless / Communications)

This is the "connectivity backbone" unit:

The flagship is FullMAX, a Software Defined Radio (SDR) platform intended for wide-area, mission-critical private wireless networks. 

It is standards-based (IEEE 802.16s) and multi-patented. 

Use cases: rail, utilities, oil & gas, transportation, government/critical infrastructure. In particular, when you need reliable, low-latency, resilient connectivity in harsh environments. 

Strengths I see:

💪 The markets for reliable private wireless / industrial IoT are large, underpenetrated, and mission critical (i.e. once embedded, switching is hard).

💪 Their solution is more than just radio: they combine network stack, software, APIs (Insightful portal) for remote monitoring, analytics, etc. 

💪 Synergy with their autonomous systems business: their own drones/robots can depend on their network.

2. Ondas Autonomous Systems (Drones, Counter-Drone, Robotics)

This is the more futuristic, high-upside unit:

They develop "drone-in-a-box" systems: Optimus, Scout, etc. 

ONDS Drone

They also have Raider, a counter-drone (anti-UAS) system to protect assets from hostile drones. 

Recently, they won a $3.5 million defense order for unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) and mission payloads. 

They operate under a "Robot-as-a-Service" (RaaS) model, which can create recurring revenue streams (maintenance, SaaS, upgrades) beyond just hardware sales. 

Strengths:

💪 Regulatory breakthroughs: American Robotics, a subsidiary, was among the first to get automated beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) drone approval from FAA (i.e. drones that fly without a human operator near them). 

💪 Defense / security demand is rising, especially for unmanned systems (air, ground, counter-drone). ONDS is positioning itself to be a player in that.

💪 The synergies between the communication (wireless) side and the robotics side give them vertical integration that is rare in this niche.

What Is Special / Unique about Its Technology

When I dig into what differentiates Ondas from a generic "drone stock" or "wireless stock", a few technical points stand out:

1. Software Defined Radio (SDR) Platform + Patents

FullMAX is not a fixed radio; it can be reprogrammed / updated in software. This gives flexibility, future upgrades, and adaptation to evolving standards. The multi-patented nature gives some barrier to entry. 

2. Mission-Critical / Hardened Use Cases

They are targeting industrial, heavy, mission-critical settings (railways, utilities, etc.), not just consumer or low-stakes IoT. That implies resilience, redundancy, reliability — features that many "IoT" players don't emphasize.

3. Full Stack Ecosystem (Network + Robotics + Analytics)

Instead of just selling drones, they provide the communication infrastructure, the software / APIs (Insightful, web portal), analytics, and counter-drone systems. This integration is harder to replicate.

ONDS Networks Ecosystem

4. Regulatory Firsts & Certification Moves

Having drone systems certified for automated, unmanned long-distance operations is nontrivial. That gives a first-mover advantage in markets with regulatory barriers. 

5. Interdependent Demand

Their wireless network solutions can support their own autonomous systems (and vice versa). So success in one hemisphere helps the other — this cross-leverage is a structural advantage.

Recent Catalysts & Stimuli

I've been following ONDS closely, and several recent events have boosted my conviction (and share price) in this name:

$3.5M Defense Order (UGVs & mission payloads)

This is real contract revenue from a "major defense entity" for ground robotics. It shows they're not just promising — they're delivering. 

Ground robotics

Index Inclusion

ONDS was recently added to the S&P Telecom Select Industry Index (and other indices), which often draws passive/ETF inflows. 

Stock Offering / Capital Raise

They undertook a public offering of common stock (e.g. ~$230M offering) to raise capital, presumably for growth, acquisitions, or R&D. 

On one hand, it's dilutive; on the other hand, it gives them runway to execute.

They also announced the launch of Ondas Capital, to invest in / accelerate allied defense & security technologies, using part of that capital. 

Strategic Partnerships

They partnered with Klear, a fintech / working-capital platform, to provide non-dilutive working capital to Ondas ecosystem companies. 

Also, they named Brigadier General Patrick Huston (U.S. Army, retired) to the advisory board for their Autonomous Systems arm — lending defense/strategic credibility. 

Brigadier General Patrick Huston

Revenue Growth & Backlog

In Q2 2025, they reported record revenue of ~$6.3M, ~6× year-over-year growth, and a $22M backlog. 

Product Orders / Expansion

They have expanded purchase orders for their Iron Drone Raider systems, especially in defense / security contexts. 

These stimuli are exactly the types I look for in a growth stock: real orders, capital to scale, strategic partnerships, and credibility boosts.

Why I Started Accumulating ONDS — My Investment Thesis

Here is what motivated me personally to begin building a position in ONDS (on a modest basis, given risk):

1. Massive Addressable Market & Trough Current Revenue

The combined market for industrial wireless, critical infrastructure networks, unmanned systems, counter-drone, and robotics is enormous (hundreds of billions). ONDS is still very early in monetizing it, so there is room for multi-turn upside. 

2. First Mover / Regulatory Advantage

Their regulatory inroads (e.g. BVLOS drone certification) and their patented tech give them early access to use cases many newer entrants might find difficult to penetrate.

3. Synergy / Differentiation

Because they are combining communication infrastructure + drone/robotics + software analytics, they can offer a more integrated solution than point players. That makes switching more frictioned for customers.

Ondas Drone

4. Recent Traction & Validation

The defense order, stock index inclusion, and partnerships give me confidence that they are not just theoretical. This gives me hope they will convert backlog into recurring revenue.

5. Upside Asymmetry

Yes, the company is risky and unprofitable now — but if they succeed even partially, the upside is multiple times what the downside is (in my view). That asymmetry is what draws me in.

6. Capital Backing & Runway

The recent capital raise gives them some breathing room to invest, expand, acquire, or support scaling. Without that, many small-tech companies die before they fully scale.

So I treat ONDS as a "venture / high growth" allocation in my broader portfolio — not my core, but something I can ride with proper risk control.

As for my target: I don't set a hard price target yet, given the volatility, but I'm watching for 5×–10× potential from current levels over 5–7 years, assuming execution. If they break through regulatory and commercial adoption, we might see much more.

Main Threats, Risks & What Could Go Wrong

Of course, I'm not blind to the risks. In fact, I try to list them out when deciding how much weight to put on this in my portfolio:

1. Dilution / Capital Risk

Because they're not yet profitable, they depend on equity raises or debt. Every capital raise dilutes existing shareholders. The recent offering helps, but they may need more. 

2. Execution Risk

Building rugged, reliable systems in defense / critical infrastructure takes time, iterations, regulatory approvals. Missed milestones, delays in product deployment, buggy tech — any of these can undermine confidence.

3. Competition / Rapid Innovation

Competitors in drones, robotics, wireless, even large incumbents (Lockheed Martin, Northrop, DJI, Ericsson/Comm companies) might try to enter or undercut. ONDS must maintain differentiation via patents, integration, and regulatory moats.

4. Regulatory / Certification Hurdles

To operate drones autonomously (especially over people, over property, across borders), regulations matter heavily. Any regulatory setbacks or changes could stall adoption. Also, defense procurement cycles are slow and bureaucratic.

5. Reliance on Large Contracts

A small company winning a few large orders can look impressive, but if any contract is cancelled, delayed, or underdelivers, the revenue base is fragile.

6. Financial Sustainability

Their current negative margins are steep. If operating expenses, R&D, or SG&A inflate uncontrollably, they could burn cash faster than expected.

7. Insider / Sell Pressure

Some recent insider activity shows only sales, no new purchases. That raises a slight red flag about insider confidence. 

8. Overvaluation / Market Sentiment

At times, the stock seems priced for perfection — any misstep could cause sharp downside. The multiple expansion relies on future growth, not current fundamentals.

9. Dependence on Government / Defense Budgets

A chunk of their traction depends on defense / security orders. If political priorities change, budgets tighten, or procurement is delayed, that could hurt.

10. Macro / Capital Markets Risk

As a small-cap tech / growth name, it is vulnerable to broader market downturns, rising interest rates (which punish unprofitable growth names), and investor risk appetite shifts.

Other Interesting Angles / Thought Starters

Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) Model

I like that they are not just selling hardware, but aiming for recurring revenue via service, software, upgrades, and maintenance. That shift from CAPEX to OPEX can stabilize cash flows in the long run.

Robot-as-a-Service

Defense & Security Tailwinds

Governments around the world are increasingly emphasizing unmanned systems, border security, drone defense (anti-UAS), critical infrastructure protection. ONDS is well-positioned to ride that wave.

Strategic M&A / Roll-ups

With their newly raised capital and the creation of Ondas Capital, they may acquire niche robotics / sensor / autonomy assets to accelerate growth. If well-executed, that can be additive.

International Expansion / Dual Markets

They have operations or connections in Israel, etc. If they can crack global markets (EMs, infrastructure-poor regions), there's additional upside.

Advisory / Credibility Moves

The appointment of a high-ranking retired general (Patrick Huston) to the advisory board adds defense / procurement credibility, which can help in government contract bidding. 

Non-dilutive Financing Initiatives

The tie-up with Klear to provide non-dilutive working capital to its ecosystem is smart — it helps reduce reliance on future dilutive equity raises. 

Final Thoughts & My Positioning

In sum, ONDS is exactly the type of speculative, high-upside name I allocate to opportunistically — not my core, but one that could produce outsized returns if execution is strong. I wouldn't bet my retirement fund on it, but a modest allocation (e.g. 1–3 % of my satellite / growth bucket) feels justified given the risk-reward.

For now, my framework is:

⬆️ Monitor quarterly orders and backlog conversion

⬆️ Watch dilution / cash burn and how much runway the company has

⬆️ Track regulatory approvals, deployment case studies, customer retention

⬆️ Reassess if valuation becomes too aggressive relative to fundamentals

If ONDS executes even half of its vision, it could be a multi-bagger. If not, downside is painful. That's why I tread carefully — but I'm already building my stake piece by piece.

$Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$  

My ONDS holdings

About me

As a retail investor, I focus mainly on the US and Singapore markets, combining a mix of technical trading and long-term investing strategies. I enjoy analyzing charts, spotting patterns, and making calculated moves based on both market sentiment and fundamentals. While I'm not a professional, I treat my portfolio seriously and continue to learn and grow with each trade. If you're also navigating the markets and enjoy discussing stocks, options, or market trends, feel free to follow me. Let's learn and grow together as a community.

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