Powell's Dovish Stance Turns Hawkish: December Rate Cut Probability Plummets Nearly 30%
Powell's Dovish Stance Turns Hawkish: December Rate Cut Probability Plummets Nearly 30%
$Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% target range as expected on Wednesday, Powell's cautious stance on further easing in December thoroughly disappointed the market.
The gold market is at a crossroads: Powell's hawkish shift, the strengthening of both the dollar and US Treasury bonds, and the complete overshadowing of the "positive" impact of the end of quantitative tightening. If the US-China-South Korea summit fails to bring substantial benefits, and market expectations for a December rate cut continue to cool, gold prices may fall towards the 55-day moving average of $3715 or even lower in the short term. Investors need to closely monitor subsequent statements from Federal Reserve officials, progress in trade war negotiations, and the decisions of the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank; any slight development could trigger sharp fluctuations.
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