OpenAI could theoretically hit a $1 trillion valuation if it manages demand and infrastructure costs, but the high-risk nature of AI could make it difficult to sustain long-term if costs outpace revenue
OpenAI may be a blessing for productivity and innovation, but a curse for labor markets and those concerned about speculative bubbles
A $1 trillion valuation is ambitious but possible, relying on revenue growth and cost management, though it is risky due to the speculative nature of the market
Investors may want to join cautiously, given the growth potential of AI, but should be wary of inflated valuations and speculative risks without clear long-term strategy
The massive investments in AI are exciting but could signal overhyped valuations, monopoly risks, and ethical concerns in the future。。。
Tag :@Huat99 @Snowwhite
$1 Trln IPO Valuation! Can OpenAI Raise So Much & Pay for AI Complex?
@Tiger_comments：According to Reuters, OpenAI Prepares for IPO at $1 Trillion Valuation From 2026 onward, OpenAI’s commercialization capabilities will no longer be just the concern of early investors—they will become the lifeline of a trillion-dollar industrial chain. OpenAI needs to grow as fast as Nvidia to achieve its wildest dream. In a situation where OpenAI’s revenues and expenditures are severely mismatched, the ecosystem associated with OpenAI is undoubtedly the largest risk in the industry. Although ChatGPT already has 800 million users and its user growth surpasses all previous successful internet platforms, what is growing even faster than user numbers is the underlying computing power demand and the supply orders OpenAI has already committed to. 1. Stargate Project: Deep Integration with SoftBank and $Oracle(ORCL)$ The most complex collaboration ecosystem is OpenAI’s Stargate project, which deeply links OpenAI with Oracle, Nvidia, SoftBank, and other companies. The market criticizes this for “capital recycling”. Their data center GPU chips are mostly purchased from Nvidia. The earliest operational facility, Abilene, uses nearly all Nvidia products, including—but not limited to—the GB200, GB300, and VR200 series. As the partner most tightly bound to OpenAI, $Oracle(ORCL)$ has also staked its fortunes. The upside is that future revenue growth is almost entirely determined by OpenAI, which will try to direct the bulk of computing power orders to Oracle—for example, a 300 billion USD order over five years starting in 2027. This explains the “explosive” long-term growth guidance in Q2 earnings calls and the “bold” upward adjustments announced at the AI World conference. 2. Collaboration with $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Secures $100 Billion Investment At the end of September, Nvidia further deepened its financial ties with OpenAI through staged investments (10 billion USD per 1GW deployed), totaling 100 billion USD in “rebates” to OpenAI. Nvidia also received corresponding OpenAI equity (calculated in stages, with the shareholding ratio capped at 10% as long as OpenAI’s valuation continues to rise), strengthening their mutual interests. 3. Collaboration with $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ : Deploying 1GW GPU and Receiving 160 Million Warrants OpenAI announced plans to deploy 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs through cloud providers over the next five years. The first batch will be 1GW of AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs. This strategy of “backup partner” helps avoid being trapped by over-dependence on a single supplier. In return, AMD will issue up to 160 million warrants to OpenAI in six batches (equivalent to 10% of current equity), at an exercise price of 1 cent—essentially free. Except for the sixth batch, which requires AMD to reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD (roughly double the current share price), the other warrants are structured such that OpenAI could convert them to cash to pay for AMD chips without significantly impacting its cash flow. 4. Collaboration with $Broadcom(AVGO)$ for Custom ASICs Not content with backing up Nvidia, OpenAI has sought a further contingency by working with Broadcom to develop custom ASICs with 10GW of computing power, mainly for proprietary inference tasks. Deployment is planned to start in the second half of next year, with full computing power construction expected by the end of 2029. Broadcom’s ASICs are likely to be deployed at Stargate (mostly operated by Oracle) or Oracle data centers. AMD GPUs may occasionally be deployed at Microsoft, as OpenAI’s collaboration with AMD only rolls out the MI450 in late 2026 for training purposes. While this may appear to be OpenAI anxiously securing compute supply, it could also be a strategic balancing act—locking in key partners early and strengthening the entire ecosystem. Is OpenAI a blessing or a curse for the market? How do you view $1 trln IPO valuation? Would you join the IPO? If possible? Is AI giants’ capital game a warning sign for market? Leave your comments to win tiger coins~
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