To The Moon

$NuScale Power(SMR)$ $Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ $Constellation Energy Corp(CEG)$ 

🎯 Executive Summary

I’m extremely confident this $SMR setup deserves a hard look heading into tonight’s Q3 print. NuScale sits at the center of the nuclear renaissance, balancing its 126-day moving average like a lifeline while 24.5% of the available float is sold short. Shares closed at $37.91 yesterday, up 6.4% on heavy volume, and the setup remains highly asymmetric. Six of the last eight earnings reactions were positive, averaging ±13.9%, but options are now pricing a monster ±19.1% swing. Nvidia’s repeated warning that “every data center in the future will be power-limited” continues to funnel structural capital into nuclear-linked plays like $SMR, $OKLO, $CEG, $CCJ, $GEV, $TLN, $VST, and $NNE. The 6 GW agreement with ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority represents a potential $25 billion infrastructure milestone validating commercial traction, even as execution risks linger. I’m positioning for an upside surprise on backlog conversion and guidance, with shorts ripe for covering if milestones hit.

💰 Financial Performance Breakdown

Consensus estimates project revenue around $11.07–$11.10 million, a staggering +2,261% year-over-year surge from last year’s $0.47 million, driven by project milestones and upfront fees. EPS expectations range from −$0.11 to −$0.15, narrowing from prior quarters but still reflecting heavy early-stage investment. The quarterly scorecard shows one beat and multiple misses since 2023; Q2 delivered $8.05 million in revenue but missed estimates by 31%, posting EPS of −$0.13 versus −$0.12 expected. Full-year 2025 revenue guidance holds near $45.06 million, though consensus slipped from $57.64 million earlier, hinting at conservative timing. Cash burn remains elevated at roughly $130 million EBITDA loss over the trailing twelve months, yet liquidity tops $489.9 million, up sharply year-over-year. Management confirmed that operating expenses will deliberately rise in Q3 and Q4 2025 as part of a “methodical” ramp-up in supply-chain development and long-lead material procurement ahead of anticipated commercial contracts. The company emphasised there will be no speculative module build-out; funds will only be used for firm customer orders, with contractual flexibility to slow or exit if needed. Key watchpoints include backlog-to-revenue conversion, progress on RoPower Romania, and any commentary on U.S. contract deployments. Beat on bookings or guide higher, and this prints green; lag on costs, and we test deeper supports fast.

🛠️ Strategic Headwinds And Execution Risk

Execution is the hinge; timelines, regulatory gating, and capex intensity remain critical. Citigroup recently downgraded SMR to Sell, trimming its price target to $37.50 from $46, warning that the 6 GW ENTRA1 deal may overstate near-term cash flow potential. Options flow data shows two-way bets dominating, with IV30 near 117.76%, implying daily swings over 2.8%. Pre-earnings drifts can reverse violently if bookings disappoint or opex accelerates. Yet NuScale’s NRC certification for the 77 MWe module and its uprated 12-module configuration reaching 924 MWe give it a regulatory moat unmatched by peers. Oklo and GE Vernova lag on certification readiness, and BWXT remains behind in modular scaling. The path is high-risk but uniquely positioned; flawless milestone delivery could ignite short covering and re-rate the stock above $50. The RoPower project’s Final Investment Decision (FID) has been delayed to mid-to-late 2026 or early 2027, shifting the deployment curve but not undermining long-term economics. Management also reported that the NRC’s 77 MWe design approval has revived customer engagement, with several previously dormant prospects re-entering negotiations last week. Demand has pivoted from smaller four- or six-module systems to full twelve-module configurations, largely driven by hyperscale data-centre operators seeking higher-capacity baseload options.

🧠 Analyst And Institutional Sentiment

Sixteen analysts currently cover SMR: 44% rate it Buy, 38% Hold, 13% Sell, and 6% Strong Sell. The average target price sits at 40.84 with a high of 60 and low of 25, implying roughly 13% upside from $37.91. Craig-Hallum reaffirmed Buy today, while Cantor Fitzgerald maintained Overweight against Citigroup’s Sell. Institutional ownership continues to rise, supported by the AI-nuclear narrative. Hedge fund positioning remains mixed, but short interest at 24.5% of float (32.36 million shares) creates the potential for an explosive squeeze if guidance or contract flow impresses. With elevated days-to-cover and heavy call activity, the next catalyst could reset sentiment quickly. Analysts are watching closely for 2026 revenue inflection toward $138 million if milestone conversion accelerates.

📉📈 Technical Setup

The daily chart shows SMR hovering along its 126-day moving average, closing near 35.98, down 5.12% before yesterday’s rebound to 37.91. The setup forms a textbook “failed breakdown” pattern; reclaiming the 13EMA ($36.50), then the 21EMA ($38), then the 55EMA ($40) would confirm momentum reversal. Volume shelves near $36 show institutional accumulation. Keltner and Bollinger overlays confirm volatility expansion; when the lower band holds, failed moves often spark reversals.

Support levels: 35.00, 33.50, 32.00.

Resistance levels: 41.00, 45.00, 52.00, 57.00.

Options data show a 31K contract session with a put-call ratio of 1.28 and IV crush potential massive post-print. The market is pricing a 50% chance of a move greater than 15.4% or $5.84 tonight. On higher timeframes, triangle consolidation points toward a $40 breakout, with MACD curling upward and RSI recovering from oversold. Historically, failed moves below the 126DMA lead to multi-week surges; I’m tracking for confirmation through volume spikes and EMA crossover alignment.

Unusual Whales flagged a standout block on 17 Sep 25: 1,200 contracts of the $SMR 60 C 20 Mar 2026 were bought for a total premium of $401,999 at $3.35 average. That’s a 65% out-the-money strike, implying conviction in a long-term breakout toward $60+. Open interest jumped by 1,200 in a single session. This is institutional-scale accumulation, not retail noise. The sweep adds high-definition context to the asymmetric setup already forming across SMR’s technicals. Watch for follow-through on shorter-dated call chains like $SMUP if near-term IV expansion continues; similar multi-tenor alignment patterns often precede momentum phases in nuclear and AI-infrastructure themes.

🌍 Macro And Peer Context

I’m convinced the macro narrative screams nuclear revival. Nvidia’s “power-limited data center” mantra and OpenAI’s energy-intensive AI buildouts position SMRs as indispensable baseload infrastructure. U.S.-Japan frameworks are channeling up to $25 billion toward ENTRA1, and TVA’s 6 GW program plus Romania’s RoPower Phase 2 demonstrate tangible global demand. Policy continuity under either U.S. administration supports nuclear as strategic infrastructure, while the DOE targets three SMR deployments by 2026. Peers offer contrast: $OKLO is up over 1,300% but has no revenue until 2027; $CEG is restarting Three Mile Island for Microsoft; $CCJ continues to surge with uranium demand; $GEV and $VST benefit from grid modernization. SMR remains the only NRC-certified player ready for immediate scale. Rate pressure is easing, permitting is accelerating, and secular rotation into clean baseload power is underway. Executive Orders signed this quarter are expected to accelerate site-specific licensing, which management described as the most direct regulatory benefit to NuScale’s ENTRA1 and domestic partnerships. They also highlighted “pretty significant” interest from Commonwealth and institutional investors in financing ENTRA1-linked projects, citing the de-risked nature of NuScale’s certified light-water reactor design and its factory-based modular manufacturing model.

📊 Valuation And Capital Health

Traditional valuation ratios are limited because SMR is still pre-profit. Forward P/S is around 200×, and P/B sits at 8.7× versus peer averages near 22.8×, suggesting elevated uncertainty but underappreciated moat value. Analyst targets ranging 25–60 reflect both opportunity and skepticism; Citi’s 37.50 target contrasts with Cantor’s bullish 55 call. Management reiterated that Fluor holds Class B units rather than common shares and may convert up to 50 million units into Class A shares. They clarified that any such sales will not affect NuScale’s strategic direction or capital allocation priorities. Liquidity of $489.9 million supports operations well into 2026 without dilution. With 24.5% of float short and an average target near 40.84, the setup remains volatile but liquid. Institutional interest tied to the AI-nuclear narrative is climbing, confirming a structural bid beneath speculative flows.

⚖️ Verdict And Trade Plan

Stance: Speculative Strong Buy with disciplined risk. I’m entering dips between $35–38 and adding above $45 confirmation. Stop-loss: $32 (below 126DMA failure). Base target: $50–55 on a guidance beat; stretch target: $60+ with positive contract flow. Watch for volume surges and upbeat commentary on RoPower or TVA timelines. The $SMUP call chain can be used tactically for traders anticipating a volatility squeeze. Short covering could magnify gains if SMR delivers credible forward milestones.

🏁 Conclusion

I am convinced that SMR represents the ultimate AI-nuclear convergence play. It combines certified reactor technology, rising global demand, and one of the most asymmetric setups in clean energy. The 126-day moving average decides whether this is consolidation or ignition. A confident guide could reprice the stock toward $60+ as shorts scramble. Execution trumps hype, and this reactor still packs fission-level potential.

📌 Key Takeaways

Revenue est. $11.07M (+2,261% YoY)

EPS est. −0.11 to −0.15

Short interest 24.5% of float

Average analyst PT $40.84; range $25–$60

Support $35.00–$33.50; resistance $41.00–$45.00

Implied volatility 117.76%; expected ±19.1% move

Liquidity $489.9M; forward guidance $45.06M FY25

Unusual Whales: $SMR 60C Mar 2026 block $401K; 1,200 contracts

Certified NRC edge; $SMUP flow aligns; AI data center demand tailwind

Operating expenses rising Q3–Q4 2025; no speculative builds; RoPower FID delayed to 2026–2027; Executive Orders boost licensing

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