The logic of upward resistance continues, with more institutions joining the ranks of those lowering expectations.
It's not that AI is truly failing, but the current bearish sentiment suits Wall Street's intention to shake out weak hands – a flush-out for a healthier market.
At this stage, it's unclear what December holds, but the November rally seems unlikely to materialize.
Notable NVDA long call roll: The Nov 21st 205 call $NVDA 20251121 205.0 CALL$ was rolled to the Jan 16th 195 call $NVDA 20260116 195.0 CALL$ , opening 34k contracts.
Why is this notable? Long calls are typically rolled once a few weeks before earnings. The previous roll was on Oct 29th, from the Nov 21st 170 call $NVDA 20251121 170.0 CALL$ to the Nov 21st 205 call $NVDA 20251121 205.0 CALL$ . To see the strike lowered and expiration extended so significantly in just over a week suggests limited catalysts are expected from the upcoming earnings.
Also worth noting: the roll into the 170 call $NVDA 20251121 170.0 CALL$ began on Sept 19th. This shows how quickly the momentum has shifted.
On the bearish side, we see buy put and sell call activity.
Bearish block: Bought the Jan 16th 155 put $NVDA 20260116 155.0 PUT$ , 5k contracts, ~$1.25M premium.
Sell call: Sold the Dec 5th 220 call $NVDA 20251205 220.0 CALL$ , 10k contracts opened. Note this order was executed very dispersedly, likely to avoid drawing attention.
There is some bullish activity too: A Nov 28th call spread (Buy 210 call $NVDA 20251128 210.0 CALL$ / Sell 235 call $NVDA 20251128 235.0 CALL$ ), essentially a bullish earnings bet. This doesn't necessarily conflict heavily with the sold 220 call.
Analyst Day did contain significant positive news, unfortunately, the timing of the release wasn't ideal. Had this been two months ago, it could have driven a 20% rally.
There's an aggressive bearish block: Sell the Dec 19th 260 call $AMD 20251219 260.0 CALL$ / Buy twice the number of Dec 19th 290 calls $AMD 20251219 290.0 CALL$ . I feel opening this today might be suitable; selling calls isn't ideal during a downtrend.
Selling the weekly 280 call $AMD 20251114 280.0 CALL$ tonight could be a play.
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
Following the prominent short seller's update, PLTR's bearish positioning hasn't shown a significant volume increase.
In fact, the top ranked trade is a bearish put sell (bullish view): $PLTR 20251219 190.0 PUT$
Other shorts haven't piled on significantly, probably still in a wait-and-see mode.
Call activity: Sell call year-end 120 $CRWV 20251219 120.0 CALL$
Put activity is primarily selling deep out-of-the-money puts: $CRWV 20260116 50.0 PUT$ $CRWV 20260116 52.5 PUT$
BABA saw both bullish and bearish openings. The notable bullish block is a call spread: Buy 180 call $BABA 20251121 180.0 CALL$ / Sell 190 call $BABA 20251121 190.0 CALL$ , though the total premium is relatively low, indicating weak bullish conviction.
The more significant flow is a bearish block: Buy the Dec 5th 160 put $BABA 20251205 160.0 PUT$ , 8,291 contracts opened, ~$6M+ premium.
Generally, if Alibaba experiences a significant pullback, it could cast a shadow over the broader Chinese tech sector.
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