To The Moon

I have covered $Globalstar(GSAT)$ on a few occasions.

Below are the two most recent posts for your reading pleasure. Click to savour.

• 01 Jul 2025 - AAPL chose GSAT is Elon Musk's Starlink loss.

• 23 Jan 2025 - AAPL space race will fuel GSAT's BOOM !

It has been a while since my last coverage and the stock has gone onto greater highs; warranting an update. And here we are !

I've been consistently following up on GSAT and I think 2026 is shaping up to be another break through year, largely thanks to its exclusive relationship with $Apple(AAPL)$.

This collaborative partnership has reached a massive milestone in late 2024 when AAPL committed $1.5 billion in funding, including $1.1 billion for network capacity and a 20% equity stake in a GSAT subsidiary.

Case of the Bull.

Personally, I see GSAT not just as a satellite company, but as an integral, exclusive infrastructure partner for the world’s most valuable technology company.

This is the core of the bull thesis, and it's what differentiates GSAT from the rest of the space pack, evident by its market cap soaring towards $8.7 billion by mid-December 2025.

Apple Revenue Ramp-Up

The market has largely discounted the initial Emergency SOS via Satellite revenue stream.

Right now, it’s a relatively small cheque from AAPL, covering the cost of operating the ground stations.

The true value lies in the contract structure and the future potential.

(1) Exclusivity is Key:

• The contract gives AAPL access to 85% of GSAT’s current & future network capacity.

• This means GSAT is AAPL’s sole provider for this crucial safety service globally, insulating it from immediate competition.

(2) 2026 Expansion:

• As we inch towards 2026, the service is expected to expand to more territories and potentially include more features.

• Most importantly, the financial structure suggests that the service fee from AAPL will eventually transition into a capacity-based, high-margin revenue stream.

• The transition, when realized, will directly translate to a massive spike in GSAT's (a) free cash flow and (b) EBITDA.

For Q4 2025, the consensus revenue estimate is approximately $70.64 million, reflecting a massive +91% YoY increase, while the company has reiterated its full-year 2025 revenue target of $260 million - $285 million. It is still a projection, don’t get too excited !!

Golden Spectrum Asset (Band 53)

Ok, this bit is a little “technical”, will try my best to keep it in simple English for easy digestion.

Beyond AAPL partnership, GSAT owns a massive, globally harmonized swathe of Band 53 (radio frequency) spectrum.

This is the hidden value that makes GSAT a compelling buy, regardless of immediate earnings. How so ?

(1) Terrestrial Potential:

Band 53 is incredibly valuable for:

• Private 5G networks.

• Industrial Internet of Things (IoT).

• Enterprise connectivity, areas where traditional cellular spectrum is congested or unavailable.

• On 16 Dec 2025 it was announced that GSAT & Skydio have successfully completed the first drone flight using Band n53 and XCOM RAN technology. (see above)

• More importantly, the announcement tells the market that Band 53 is “Open for business” and literally transforms GSAT - from a satellite company to a critical 5G infrastructure company.

(2) Monetization is Inevitable:

• As more companies and governments require dedicated, secure 5G slices, GSAT is perfectly positioned to lease this spectrum.

• October 2025 commercial rollout of RM200M 2-way satellite IoT module is already gaining traction in defense and industrial sectors.

• Any major licensing deal for Band 53 in 2026 could provide a massive, non-dilutive catalyst that instantly re-rates GSAT, the stock.

Technical Analysis - Year To Date.

Moving Averages:

• The stock price is currently in a state of consolidation following its recent explosive run.

• As of 18 Dec 2025, GSAT sits at $58.64, that is marginally below its 20-day moving average of $64.26.

• However, it remains firmly above its 50-day average of $55.28 and its 200-day average of $32.38, maintaining a healthy long-term bullish structure.

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

• At 42.05, it signals GSAT is now cooling off from a previous overbought state.

• This suggests that although momentum is exceptionally strong, the current pullback is a necessary "breather" for the stock.

"Base & Breakout" Structure:

• For the first 5 months of 2025, GSAT traded in a relatively flat or slightly declining range, bottoming out near $17–$18 in April / May 2025.

• This period established a "floor” as investors were waiting for proof of the XCOM RAN (private 5G) rollout and the impact of AAPL’s partnership.

• Since June / July 2025, the curve shifted from horizontal to parabolic. This coincided with news of record activations and successful drone connectivity trials (Skydio), shifting the narrative from "speculative satellite play" to "essential telecommunications infrastructure.

The "hockey stick" shape of GSAT’s YTD curve suggests 3 key takeaways for any investor’s portfolio:

• Steep slope - aggressive accumulation. Institutional "big money" has likely entered the trade, moving the needle beyond retail speculation.

• High volatility - price discovery. With 5-day swings of ±10%, US market is still trying to decide if GSAT is a $9 Billion company OR a $7 billion company. Expect "choppiness” during this period.

• Divergence - overbought signal. Recent sell signals from the MACD (see above) and a peak in RSI suggest "easy money" phase of the rally is over; with GSAT in "consolidation" phase now.

Support Levels:

• GSAT’s immediate support sits at $55.82 (as of 17 Dec 2025 low).

• Failing which, the next major psychological & technical floor is at $50.00.

Resistance Levels:

• GSAT is currently navigating a pullback from its recent 52-week high of $74.88.

• Its immediate resistance is at $62.00, a level recently cited by $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ as its "Hold" target on 16 Dec 2025.

Trading Volume:

• Average daily trading volume over last 90 days stands at 1.12 million shares changing hands.

• With 18 Dec 2025 volume at 343,510 shares (low relative to the 1.45 million volume seen during the 17 Dec 2025’s drop), this indicates selling pressure may be exhausting as the stock looks for a bottom.

For Investors.

GSAT’s curve is currently in a "Buy the Dip" test.

Bull Case:

• If GSAT holds the $57–$58 support level, the technical path remains open for a re-test of $75 and potentially a triple-digit price target in 2026 as satellite launches begin.

Bear Case:

• Significant insider selling (over $4 million or more GSAT shares in last 3 months).

• A high valuation multiple suggest that GSAT has "priced in" a lot of its 2026 success already.

Technical Note:

• Keep an eye on crucial $55 level.

• A break below this would signal a trend reversal, while holding it confirms that the long-term upward trajectory is still intact.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

The complexity of satellite accounting and spectrum valuation often confuses investors, leading to undervaluation. But the thesis is simple:

GSAT is a call option on the continued integration of satellite connectivity into consumer devices, executed exclusively by AAPL.

In 2026, the Apple service is expected to moves beyond its initial ramp-up and into its full operational phase, supported by the upcoming Globalstar-3 satellite launches scheduled for mid-2026, delivering the high-margin capacity payments everyone is waiting for.

As the company begins to strategically monetize Band 53, I will expect GSAT to finally trade at a multiple that reflects its unique, de-risked position as a critical player in the future of ubiquitous connectivity.

Analyst like B. Riley, have maintained a high target of $78.75 per share, suggesting significant upside remains from current levels.

Now, you know why I like GSAT. (see below)

The groundwork has been laid; 2026 (fingers crossed) should be when we start seeing the harvest, if all goes according to plan. Agree ?

Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting.

My 2,430 ‘timeless’ posts remain available (for now) for those who value fundamentals as Mr Buffett had pointed — invest in businesses, not pick stocks.

To new subscribers, no flashy screens to entice blind investing. I aim to share on how to fish, not fish for you.

I’m grateful to share what I know. In the alternate moo moo universe, where I am valued & appreciated, I will still be sharing. Good luck on your i-journey.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think GSAT will continue to rise in 2026, as forecasted with facts ’?

• Do you think it is risky for GSAT to be so “dependent” on AAPL per se ?

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