The Space Race of 2026: Rocket Lab vs SpaceX
πππIs $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$
Needham's USD 90 Target : Bullish or Myth?
Needham analyst Ryan Koontz is bullish on Rocket Lab with a Price Target of USD 90. His thesis is built on solid quantifiable catalysts that are aligning for a stellar 2026 for Rocket Lab:
1. The Big Win -The SDA Contract: The record breaking USD 805 million contract win from the US Space Development Agency (SDA) is a game changer. This contract provides long term, high margin, predictable revenue that dramatically de-risks Rocket Lab's financials and nearly doubles their current backlog.
2. The Neutron Catalyst: The next generation Neutron rocket, slated for its maiden flight in 2026, moves Rocket Lab from a small payload niche to the much larger, medium lift market. This opens up an addressable market worth tens of billions more annually.
3. The SpaceX Effect: The anticipation of a multi trillion dollar SpaceX IPO in 2026 is forcing the market to fundamentally rerate the entire space sector. As one of the few publicly traded pure play space companies with proven execution , Rocket Lab is the immediate and primary alternative for investors wanting a piece of the space economy.
The Technicals: A Powerful Overbought Rocket Signal
Bullish Indicators: Rocket Lab is in a strong rising trend with short term moving averages of 10 day and 50 day crossing above the long term averages. This is a classic Buy signal. The breakout above the USD 70.00 resistance level is significant.
A Note of Caution: The Relative Strength Index or RSI is well above 70. This means that the stock is overbought. It is like the stock just ran a marathon and needs to catch its breath before sprinting the final leg to that USD 90 Target!
SpaceX vs Rocket Lab: Which is a better play?
SpaceX: The Unmatched Titan
SpaceX is the awe inspiring, Mars colonising juggernaut built on a radical vision. I am bullish on SpaceX because I believe in Elon Musk's world changing vision and potential USD 1.5 Trillion IPO upside.
Rocket Lab: The Nimble Challenger
Rocket Lab is the reliable smart underdog with a great execution record and profitable space systems business. It is the stock for the investor who wants tangible results today and massive growth potential when its Neutron rocket flies into orbit in 2026.
My Verdict
I favour Rocket Lab as it is already listed in the markets and is undervalued compared to SpaceX which has yet to be publicly listed.
SpaceX is the dream of tomorrow with vision of colonising Mars. Rocket Lab is the profitable reality. Let's ride this rocket to the moon and hopefully past USD 90 a share soon.
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