$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ So to sum up my investments in 2025, well as the memes below illustrate, I'm not bothered.
So I call myself the emotional investor. I don't often explain my principles behind emotional investment. Usually it's very subtle. so today in this post I'll explain one rule of emotional investment that has more than 10x my portfolio. And I will be on point regarding the topic... which is about volatility and uncertainty.
For an emotional investor, uncertainty creates opportunity. The street hates uncertainty, basically a stock with high levels of uncertainty gets taken out back and gets shot in the head. On the other side is certainly. Stocks like $Realty Income(O)$ that have paid and increased their dividend for many Many decades, never cut ever. Well that's as certain as it gets. So they trade at a premium, dividend yield is only around 5% whereas less certain dividend stocks like for eg $Trinity Capital Inc.(TRIN)$ provide a dividend return of 15%. less certain.
But, dividend stocks are exceeding unlikely to 10x in a year, more like double in 7 years. So as an emotional investor I will focus on uncertainty. It's just one of my investment principles, but let's go there, with an explicit example.
$Venture Global, Inc.(VG)$ was trading in the $15 range last year. There was a little uncertainty surrounding potential law suits, but the first arbiration was unsuccessful. second was successful. As a result of uncertainty, VG is now trading around $7. And was under $6 in nov/dec 2025.
So for perspective, venture global has spent billions to set up production facilities in the USA to become the largest LNG exporter in the world going forward. so capex is done, now it's just printing cash. They were sued by shell and exon and three others, for supply contract breaches. These breaches are not straight forward, there is no clear victory for either party.
Regardless, VG selling preproduction outputs on the spot market Generated approximately $20 billion, vs the outcome of successful law suits against them are estimated at $4 billion. And remember they banked the $20 billion in 2022, and are yet to expense damages that may or not be paid. Mean time they are signing numerous long term supply contracts going forward.
Hmmm, at $7 well my emotional investor philosophy screams at me! BUY! Times when short term uncertainty kills a stock, and knowing that mid term the uncertainty gets resolved. Then also knowing that long term it will explode, well it's not are hard decision for me. Because uncertainty becomes certainty. The certainty medium and long term is clear to me. But current uncertainty, well that's created the opportunity.
My prediction, and thus personal investment thesis is... there will be announcements in Q1 this year. This will resolve the uncertainty. So the stock will double in value in Q1. Then there will be certainty. On Friday Jan 2026 VG was trading at $7.05, by December 2026 it will be at least 5x that.
So that was uncertainty. Plenty of people try to generate unlimited uncertainty on a daily basis. Emotional investors see it for what it is. OPPORTUNITY.
A final point, volatility. 2025 was the most volatile year for me since 1987. but i did miss a few crashes. And yet volatility, is the outcome of uncertainty. And macro cow nuggets. Short term economic reports should be shredded in my humble opinion, used like cow manure, and fed to your vegetable plants. That's there best use case.
Trump is taking over Madagascar as we speak, supposedly. I'm not bothered. I will continue to find awesome stocks that are serious undervalued due to streets emotions that are quite frankly nonsense
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- dimzy·01-04 20:42Spot on! Uncertainty is pure gold lah, volatility rocks! [看涨]1Report
- singsongone 10·01-04 15:16哈哈 不错 这么长的心得LikeReport
