Intel Earnings: Buy the Rumour or Sell The News?
πππIntel $Intel(INTC)$
Intel has surged almost 30% in January. This is driven by a powerful narrative of an imminent comeback. This momentum is intoxicating but also sets a high bar.
The Bull Case for Intel - A Jump on Surprise Earnings
Options data is largely skewed to the upside, implying a potential move north of USD 50 immediately after the report. Analysts like KeyBanc's John Vinh has recently upgraded Intel to Overweight with a USD 60 price target as it is believed that the turnaround story is not fully priced in yet.
The Bear Case: Sell the News
The consensus rating among analysts is a cautious Hold or Reduce , with average price targets actually sitting below the current stock price at USD 41.08. The sheer speed of the rally suggests that any minor disappointment could trigger a sharp emotional selloff as traders lock in profits.
Key Catalysts and Earnings Guidance
Intel's future movement depends less on the current quarter's backward looking numbers and more on management's forward looking guidance and comments on key strategy catalysts.
Guidance & Expectations: Intel has guided for Q4 2025 non GAAP EPS of USD 0.08 on revenue of USD 12.8 billion to USD 13.8 billion.
The consensus estimates are aligned with this at USD 0.08 EPS and USD 13.37 in revenue. A significant beat on these numbers, coupled with a strong Q1 2026 outlook is necessary to propel the stock higher.
Catalyst 1: AI Server CPU Demand : Intel is reportedly nearly sold out of server CPUs for 2026 due to surging AI related demand. This is a massive tailwind. Confirmation of this strength on the earnings call would be a major positive surprise.
Catalyst 2: The Foundry Story and 18A Progress: Progress in Intel's crucial foundry business and improved yields on the next generation Intel 18A manufacturing process are critical long term catalysts. Reports that Intel is securing external customers, potentially even Apple, are major talking points.
Catalyst 3: Panther Lake Launch: The launch of the new Panther Lake PC CPUs is a key product catalyst for the PC segment of the business.
Concluding Thoughts
Ultimately the market is betting on Intel's future, not the past. If management's tone is confident and provides concrete evidence of securing new foundry customers amid TSMC'S capacity crunch, the bulls will run wild. If Intel's management is cautious or if the earnings beat is minimal, the risk of a sharp correction is real.
The verdict is clear : Intel is no longer just a turnaround story. It has become a high velocity momentum play where the margin of error is slimmer.
Fasten your seatbelts and be ready for a potentially wild ride for Intel this week.
@Tiger_comments @Tiger_SG @TigerStars @TigerClub @CaptainTiger
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- icycrystalΒ·01-19TOPthanks for sharing1Report