To The Moon

Lately, the question everyone keeps asking is pretty simple: “Gold has already run this far — is there still upside?”

The most intriguing aspect of gold's recent performance isn't the magnitude of its gains, but its remarkable resilience after hitting historic highs—it simply refuses to fall. Many anticipated a sharp downward move, only to see the price consolidate at elevated levels. Today, gold reached a new all-time high of $4,722.78.

Looking at gold ETFs, the overnight session tells the same story. $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ was up 2.83%, $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ gained 2.89%, and $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ jumped 3.83%. On the leveraged side, $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ really amplified the move with a 7.79% gain, while $ProShares Ultra Gold(UGL)$ was also up a solid 5.85%.

On January 17, Trump posted on social media that starting February 1, the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on all goods exported to the U.S. by eight European allies opposing his Greenland annexation plan — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland. The tariffs will increase to 25% on June 1 and remain in place until a deal is reached for what he called the ‘complete and total purchase of Greenland.’

Under U.S. tariff threats, Europe’s response has clearly hardened. On January 18, the eight countries issued a joint statement warning that tariff threats damage transatlantic relations and could trigger a dangerous negative spiral. They said they would respond in a “united and coordinated” manner. Reports also suggest the EU is discussing retaliatory tariffs worth €930 billion on U.S. goods, and Macron is even considering using the never-before-invoked “anti-coercion instrument.”

Today, Denmark sent additional troops to Greenland. At the same time, Trump reportedly told Norway that after not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, he no longer needs to “purely consider peace.”

Amid geopolitical uncertainties, precious metals—traditionally viewed as safe-haven assets—rebounded sharply after a brief pullback on January 15-16, with gold posting remarkable gains.

This rally in precious metals didn’t start because of one single event, and it’s unlikely to end because of one either. Greenland is just the latest spark — the fire was already burning. Tensions between the U.S. and Europe, tariff threats, cracks within NATO, plus repeated pressure on the Fed’s independence all point to the same thing: the market’s confidence in “certainty” is fading.

And once the market starts doubting certainty, gold stops being a question of “should I buy?” and becomes a question of “how much should I allocate?”

From a flow perspective, this couldn’t be clearer. Last week, global gold ETF holdings increased by 28 tonnes — the biggest weekly inflow since September last year. That’s not retail chasing headlines. That looks like allocation capital quietly lining up. At this point, many investors aren’t debating entry points anymore — they’re just asking whether there’s any gold in their portfolio at all.

Technically, gold has been chopping around the $4,600 level over the past couple of days, and today it finally pushed through $4,700. Some people are already calling a top. But if you’ve actually been watching price action, you’ll notice there hasn’t been a real breakdown. Every dip keeps getting bought. Honestly, this looks more like a pause to catch its breath than the end of the move.

At this stage, there’s a mindset shift that really needs to happen:
Gold is no longer just a risk-off trade. It’s becoming a long-term hedge against institutional risk, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical friction.
That’s exactly why it’s holding up so well even at record highs.

So asking whether “gold has gone up too much” kind of misses the point now. The real question is whether gold has already moved from being a tactical trade to something that deserves a serious long-term allocation.

When it comes to implementation, gold ETFs are still the simplest way to participate. Looking at recent ETF data, the positioning of the core products is pretty clear:

$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ : Almost entirely backed by physical gold. Total assets are about $160.923 billion, making it the largest and most liquid gold ETF out there. Expense ratio is 0.40%, with a 2026 year-to-date return of 6.30%.

$Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ : Total assets around $73.076 billion, with a much lower expense ratio of 0.25%. Its 2026 YTD return is 6.28%, with tracking almost identical to GLD. This one makes more sense for long-term, set-and-forget allocation money.

$VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ : Assets of roughly $29.064 billion, expense ratio 0.50%, and a 2026 YTD return of 13.37%. This fund doesn’t hold physical gold — it holds large global gold miners. That means performance reflects gold prices, miner fundamentals, and broader equity risk sentiment, which is why it often magnifies gold’s moves on the upside.

$Spdr Gold Minishares Trust(GLDM)$ : Total assets about $27.960 billion, with the lowest expense ratio here at just 0.10%. Its 2026 YTD return is 6.26%, offering relatively stable exposure.

If you’re not here to allocate but want to trade the trend more aggressively, then leveraged products come into play.

$ProShares Ultra Gold(UGL)$ : Offers 2x daily exposure to gold price moves. Assets are around $1.177 billion, expense ratio 0.95%, and a 2026 YTD return of 12.30%. This one works for swing trades when the trend is clear.

$Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(NUGT)$ : This one amplifies gold miners, not gold itself. Assets stand at roughly $1.304 billion, expense ratio 0.75%, and a massive 2026 YTD return of 27.78%. The upside is huge, but so is the volatility — definitely more suitable for trading-oriented capital.