Intel’s existential risk is gone — but the stock is now running ahead of the fundamentals.
Backed by government funding and strategic equity from NVIDIA & SoftBank, Intel has established a hard strategic floor. The market is now pricing in execution perfection.
📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE (structural)
Balance sheet stabilized, narrative reset to IDM 2.0.
Atomic evidence:
• ~$7B NVIDIA/SoftBank investment at ~$23 (Q3’25)
• Gross margin trough passed: 34.8% vs 32.7% in 2024
• Impairments down to $950M from $3.3B
• Inventory reserves +$878M tied to early 18A ramp
• Share count +16% YoY → dilution drag
⚠️ Bottleneck:
Intel 18A HVM yield and external foundry customer ramp.
💰 Price-conditioned valuation:
At **$45.07 (23 Jan ’26)**, the stock assumes flawless 18A execution and a rapid return to >40% gross margins.
🧠 Verdict: Hold / Monitor.
Strategic support is real — but execution proof must catch up to price.
🤖 AI-assisted analysis
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