To The Moon

Over the past week, gold surged from $4,600 per ounce to a staggering high of $5,111, leaving observers stunned:

As a result, gold ETFs have shone brightly: The 3x leveraged gold ETF— $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ —has surged over 90% year-to-date! The 2x leveraged gold mining ETF— $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares(JNUG)$ —has climbed over 58% year-to-date! The non-leveraged gold ETF— $abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF(GLTR)$ —has gained over 30%! The largest gold ETF— $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ —has risen over 17%!

Amid the sharp rally, many retail investors have begun flocking in, and even classmates I haven't contacted in years are now reaching out on WeChat for my advice—a clear sign of the market's fervor!

In previous articles, I've outlined the logic behind this gold bull market. Interested readers can refer to my past posts:

Gold is ripping higher — is it still worth jumping on board?

Trump Retreats on Greenland Rhetoric, Gold Prices Pull Back — Opportunity or Market Peak?

Today we'll explore a new question: After a rapid surge, has gold peaked?

Unlike stocks, gold does not generate interest, making it difficult to determine its fair value using traditional value investing methods. Historically, gold's price movements have been primarily influenced by the following factors:

First, are U.S. Treasury yields rising or falling?

Second, is the U.S. dollar appreciating or depreciating?

Third, is the global situation stable, or is geopolitical risk rising?

Fourth, is the global economy heading into trouble or crisis?

Fifth, what stance are central banks taking toward gold?

Looking at U.S. Treasury yields, after September 2020, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield began a sustained uptrend and has remained at elevated levels, currently around 4.22%.

In general, rising U.S. Treasury yields are bearish for gold, which does not bear interest.

Looking at 2021 and 2022, gold did indeed underperform after Treasury yields climbed. Even amid the Russia-Ukraine war, gold prices continued to fall before bottoming out in October 2022！

By late 2022, U.S. inflation began to ease, and the Federal Reserve initiated rate cuts starting in 2024. Yet the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained elevated:

What’s behind this apparent contradiction is the sharp policy shift after Trump took office. Tariffs have been used aggressively and unpredictably, prompting investors to sell U.S. Treasuries, which in turn pushed yields higher.

As a result, today’s elevated Treasury yields are no longer a bearish signal for gold.

Now look at the U.S. dollar. Largely due to Trump’s increasingly isolationist policies, the dollar has been weakening against a basket of currencies. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has fallen from around 1300 when Trump took office to about 1188, representing a depreciation of nearly 9%.

A weaker dollar is bullish for gold and many other dollar-denominated assets.

At the same time, a falling dollar alongside rising U.S. Treasury yields both point to one thing: the global situation is far from stable — and this year has only made that clearer. The U.S. has deployed forces to seize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, pushed aggressively to acquire Greenland, threatened tariffs on its own allies, and even floated plans to change Iran’s regime.

The existing global order has effectively unraveled. Trust between the U.S. and Europe has been broken, the world is sliding into isolationism, trade disputes are flaring up everywhere, and tariffs and strategic resources are increasingly being weaponized. All of this has left countries deeply uneasy.

Given this, as long as Trump remains in office, global stability seems unlikely—this is the core reason gold is entering its strongest bull market since 1979!

Against a backdrop of global turmoil, central banks around the world have been accelerating their gold purchases. As of November 2025, global central bank gold holdings reached 1.174 billion troy ounces (one troy ounce equals roughly 31 grams of gold), an increase of about 8.6 million troy ounces, or roughly 267 metric tons, compared with a year earlier.

The trend of central banks buying gold is far from over. On January 21, the National Bank of Poland announced plans to purchase 150 tons of gold this year, worth roughly $23 billion at current market prices.

Last year, Poland bought around 100 tons of gold, making it the largest gold buyer among global central banks. If this year’s purchase plan is fully executed, Poland is set to enter the top 10 countries worldwide by gold reserves.

From this perspective, the factors supporting gold's bull run remain intact and are even strengthening.

Therefore, the current major gold bull market has not yet concluded. While mid-cycle corrections may occur, a bear market reversal is unlikely—at least during Trump's presidency, as the catalysts driving gold prices upward will persist.

Analysts are now revising their gold price forecasts upward. Goldman Sachs projects a rise to $5,400 this year, while Singapore's OCBC Bank predicts prices could reach $5,600 by year-end!

Investors bullish on gold may consider related ETFs. Among these, leveraged ETFs offer the highest volatility—for instance, $MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN(GDXU)$ is a 3x leveraged gold ETF suitable for short-term bets on continued price gains, though it carries significant risk and is not recommended for ordinary investors.

Gold mining ETFs like $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ , $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF(GDXJ)$ , and RING hold gold mining stocks as underlying assets, providing substantial volatility while maintaining relative stability.

Conservative investors may consider gold-linked ETFs like $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ or $Gold Trust Ishares(IAU)$ , which track gold prices closely, offering greater stability and suitability for regular investments.