To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases for January 2026 (week of 02Feb2026)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) Update

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data is scheduled for release in the coming week. Previously, the year-on-year CPI was reported at 2.7%. This data is significant as it provides insight into the current inflation rate, a critical economic indicator. Market volatility is expected around the release, given CPI’s role in reflecting inflation trends. Controlling inflation remains a central focus for the Federal Government, which has set a target rate of 2%.

Existing Home Sales for January

Another important economic indicator to be released is the existing home sales data for January. The previous report showed a figure of 4.35 million. The upcoming data will offer valuable insight into the state of the American real estate market.

Earnings Calendar (02Feb2026)

Earnings Reports to Watch

Several major companies are set to release their earnings, which will be closely watched by investors and analysts for insights into various sectors of the economy. The companies scheduled to report include:

• Palantir

• Tyson

• Disney

• PayPal

• AMD

• Alphabet

• Amazon

• Shell

• Affirm

These earnings releases will provide valuable information on company performance and could have a significant impact on their respective industries and the broader market.

Let us look at Affirm (AFRM), a leading “Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL)” player.

Affirm is recognised as one of the prominent players in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector, ranking alongside the market leader, Klarna. The company’s innovative payment solutions have contributed to its significant standing within the industry.

Stock Performance and Analyst Sentiment

Recently, Affirm’s stock price has fallen 1.26% over the past year. Technical analysis currently recommends a “strong sell” rating. In contrast, analyst sentiment suggests a “buy” rating, with a target price set at $92. This implies a potential upside of 52.57% from the current price of $60.30 (based on the last closing).

Revenue Growth

Affirm Holdings, Inc. demonstrated significant revenue growth from 2019 to 2025. The company’s revenue increased from $0.26 billion in 2019 to $3.2 billion in 2025, reflecting the expanding market presence and increased adoption of its payment solutions.

Gross Profit and Operating Results

Gross profit showed a substantial rise, moving from $156 million in 2019 to $2.17 billion in 2025. In 2019, Affirm reported a loss of $102 million. However, by 2025, the company achieved a profit of $338 million, marking its first operating profit in seven years. This turnaround in profitability is a positive indicator for the company’s future financial health.

Earnings Per Share (EPS)

Earnings per share (EPS) began at -$0.65 in 2019. The company reached a positive EPS of $0.15 in 2025. Notably, the most challenging year during this period was 2023, when EPS hit a low of -$3.34.

Return Metrics

Affirm’s return on assets, return on equity, and return on invested capital were negative throughout the initial years of the period analysed. These metrics only turned positive in 2025, demonstrating improvement in the company’s overall financial performance.

Valuation

Affirm Holdings, Inc. currently has a price-earnings ratio of 85.4, which suggests that the stock may be overvalued at this time.

The BNPL is expected to grow to a $1 trillion market by 2031.

The expected earnings are $0.267 and $1.06B for the EPS and revenue, respectively.

With the business turning profitable, can this be considered for our portfolio?

However, we are concerned with the increasing number of customers using BNPL for daily essentials. About 25% of the BNPL users are using loans to buy groceries, up from 14% a year ago. This does not seem to be sustainable.

Given the above, the growing market may signal underlying weakness - costs of living in the broader market. BNPL businesses make money when customers can pay back. For this, I prefer to monitor the performance of this business.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (02Feb2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has completed a top crossover, which implies a bearish outlook.

Moving Averages

The price action, as depicted by the candlesticks, is currently situated above both the 50-day and 200-day moving average (MA) lines. This positioning indicates a bullish trend in both the short-term and long-term outlooks. Furthermore, both the 50 MA and the 200 MA are trending upward, reinforcing the positive trend.

Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)

The three Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines have yet to converge. We can expect a change from the current bullish trend after the 3 lines have completed their overlap. Currently, EMA is suggesting a more bullish outlook.

Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) currently registers at 0.09 and is also trending upward. This reading indicates that there is more buying pressure than selling, especially after crossing the middle “0” line.

More Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, 14 indicators display a “Buy” rating, while 5 display a “Sell” rating. This leads to a “Buy” rating based on the daily interval.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

The market has risen into the “Greed” region, with an index score of 58 (up from last week’s score of 53).

The market continues to trend towards the “Greed” region, as per the chart above.

Based on the data above, I lean towards a more “bearish” outlook in the coming week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (02Feb2026)

Several explosions were reported just now in Tehran and other cities in Iran. - X user Jesse Cohen

The U.S. Senate passes a bill to fund the government, averting an imminent shutdown. The legislation now moves to the House. Seems like the Government shutdown is over (for now). - X user Conflict Alarm

Ray Dalio just said the quiet part out loud. "If you depreciate the money, it makes everything look like it's going up." The Stock Market boom is a lie. We are witnessing the death of the Dollar, not the growth of the economy. 99% of people have no idea. - X user Bark

26.4% of US federal debt is maturing within 12 months, near the highest % in 26 years, according to Tavi Costa's analysis. This is about $10 TRILLION of debt. - X user Global Markets Investor

Sam Altman warns of OpenAI layoffs as "AI replaces workers." This follows reports of further layoffs at Pintrest and Amazon as "AI transitions from expansion to discipline phase." - X user Financelot

UPS to cut another 30,000 jobs in 2026 as it doubles down on turnaround - X user MacroEdge

Hundreds set to be laid off from Meta's Reality Labs division - USA Today

Nike is cutting 775 employees, primarily at its U.S.-based distribution centers, CNBC has learned. - CNN

Institutional investors sold -$9.2 billion in US equities last week, marking the 5th straight week of selling. They dumped -$8.1 billion in single stocks and $1.1 billion in ETFs - X user Global Markets Investor

My Investing Muse

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Oracle is considering slashing up to 30,000 jobs as the company struggles with the cost of its AI build-out. - X user Markets & Mayhem

Peloton looks to cut about 11% of its workforce. - Bloomberg

US layoffs have surged to recessionary levels: US employers announced 1,206,374 job cuts in 2025, up +58% YoY, the highest since the 2020 Crisis. Excluding 2020, this was the worst year since the 2008 Financial Crisis. - X user Global Markets Investor

Chemical maker Dow is cutting 4,500 jobs and will rely on AI. - X user MacroEdge

My Final Thoughts

Here is the S&P 500 denominated in gold (i.e., the S&P 500 to Gold Ratio), which shows how many ounces of gold are equivalent to the S&P 500 index level at month-end closes (or closest available data). This is calculated as the S&P 500 index ÷ gold price per ounce (USD).Current/latest (as of late January 2026, around January 25–28): Approximately 1.32–1.37 ounces of gold (sources like Longtermtrends report 1.32 on Jan 25 with S&P ~6,979 and gold ~$5,282; slight variations exist due to exact daily closes). The ratio has trended downward over the last 6 months, reflecting gold's strong outperformance (gold surged significantly while the S&P 500 showed more modest/net flat changes in relative terms). At the end of July 2925, this index is 1.90 when the S&P500 stood around 6,339 and gold at $3,339 per ounce. It is a drop of over 30% since.

This is a flight from fiat where USD is the leading player. Wars and rumors of wars would be typical distractions. Let us not rule out black swans of famines, earthquakes, pestilences and other disasters (man made or natural).

Holding assets in USD may get painful when the USD is no longer trusted and used. Let us consider some hedging in other currencies, assets and markets.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings with the intention of divesting from businesses that are losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars