To The Moon

The conflict in the Middle East has escalated significantly, with the United States and Israel launching major strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026. President Trump has described these as “major combat operations” aimed at addressing security threats, including Iran’s nuclear program and military capabilities, while urging Iranians to seize the opportunity for regime change.

from the CNN homepage

Iran has retaliated with ballistic missile strikes targeting Israel and U.S. assets across the region, including in Gulf Arab states such as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. These actions have drawn condemnations from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, which have intercepted missiles and positioned themselves against what they describe as Iranian aggression. Explosions and impacts have been reported in multiple locations, heightening fears of a broader regional war.

Economic and market impacts are already emerging:

• Oil prices have risen (WTI crude around $67 per barrel recently), driven by uncertainty over supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and potential threats to key shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.

• Bitcoin has dipped below $64,000 shortly amid the risk-off sentiment in global markets.

• Expect further increases in oil prices, supply chain costs, and shipping expenses. Carriers may reroute vessels around Africa to avoid the region, adding up to 14 days to transit times to Europe, leading to delays, higher freight rates, and inventory disruptions.

Businesses with operations in the Middle East could face pressures to temporarily or permanently relocate. Southeast Asia stands out as a potential beneficiary, attracting redirected investments, manufacturing shifts, and talent flows seeking safer environments.

Stock markets are likely to experience volatility as investors assess escalation risks, energy shocks, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Broader risks include:

• Potential retaliation against American citizens, businesses, or interests domestically and abroad, possibly through asymmetric means or activated proxy/terrorist groups. Heightened caution is advised even outside active conflict zones.

• The conflict is drawing in additional actors. North Korea has issued threats of engagement if further attacks target Iran, raising questions about spillover into Northeast Asia.

• Resource diversion from other global hotspots, such as Ukraine, where U.S. priorities and aid could shift.

• Legal and political debates in the U.S., as the Constitution requires congressional approval for declaring war. Bipartisan efforts (e.g., war powers resolutions) are underway to force votes limiting unilateral action, with potential backlash expected in the coming days or weeks.

The greatest concern remains miscalculation leading to civilian casualties or major non-military damage, which could trigger escalatory responses and pull in more parties. Opportunistic actors may exploit the chaos for their own gains.

While the situation remains fluid and the potential for wider involvement is real, I hope for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy. In the meantime, prioritising safety, preparedness, and kindness toward one another is more important than ever.

Wishing safety to all affected, and let’s hold onto empathy wherever possible. Stay vigilant and monitor developments closely.

(This is written by me and refined with AI.)

@TigerStars

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