To The Moon

$AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ 

$Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ 

$Redwire Corp.(RDW)$

$Planet Labs Pbc(PL)$

$EchoStar(SATS)$

With the war appearing close to an end, markets are rapidly shifting focus again. Oil prices, which had surged to around $116 per barrel, plunged below $90 after an announcement by Donald Trump, triggering a sharp reversal as traders began pricing in easing geopolitical risks.

As energy markets cool and the broader stock market begins to rally again, investor attention is shifting back to long-term structural themes — and one of the biggest discussions returning to the spotlight is space stocks and the space economy.

If SpaceX eventually goes public, the valuation framework for the entire “space economy” could be fundamentally repriced.

SpaceX sits at the center of the industry as the core platform. In the space ecosystem, it mainly acts as a platform and launch service provider, rather than doing everything itself. Many other companies operate as partners, suppliers, or payload customers that rely on its launch capabilities.

EchoStar actually holds (or will hold) a stake in SpaceX, but it happened through a spectrum deal, not a direct stock purchase.

In 2025, EchoStar sold valuable wireless spectrum licenses (AWS-4 and H-Block) to SpaceX to help expand the Starlink direct-to-cell network.

The deal structure included:

~$8.5B cash

~$8.5B in SpaceX stock

SpaceX paying ~$2B of EchoStar’s debt interest until 2027. 

Later transactions added more SpaceX stock, increasing EchoStar’s exposure.

2. Size of the stake

Estimated ~2.8% ownership of SpaceX after the deals. �

satellitetoday.com

Initial value ~$11B in SpaceX equity. 

If SpaceX valuation rises (e.g., $800B+), that stake could theoretically be worth $20B+.

Three common collaboration models in the space industry

① Launch (Rocket Launch Services)

A representative company is Rocket Lab ($RKLB).

This layer is the entry point of the entire space economy, responsible for sending satellites and equipment into orbit. Demand mainly comes from three areas:

Satellite constellation deployments

Military and defense satellites

Commercial communication satellites

With low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite constellations expected to expand significantly over the next few years, launch demand is likely to grow steadily, creating a long-term and stable market.

② LEO Connectivity (Low-Earth-Orbit Communications)

A representative company is AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS).

The core concept here is enabling mobile phones to connect directly to satellites, eliminating the need for ground cell towers.

If the technology matures, the potential market could be enormous, including:

Global telecom coverage

Maritime and aviation communications

Internet connectivity for remote regions

This is widely viewed as one of the most disruptive business models in the LEO satellite sector.

③ Orbital Infrastructure

Representative companies include:

Redwire ($RDW)

Planet Labs ($PL)

BlackSky ($BKSY)

Spire Global ($SPIR)

These companies provide space-related infrastructure services, such as:

Space manufacturing

Earth observation data

Orbital services and analytics

From an industry perspective, they function more like “the cloud infrastructure layer of space”, providing continuous data and services to governments and commercial customers.

Backlog (signed orders yet to be delivered)

$RKLB ~ $1.9B

$FLY ~ $1.4B

$ASTS ~ $1.2B

$PL ~ $735M

$RDW ~ $411M

$BKSY ~ $345M

$SPIR ~ $200M

$VOYG ~ $189M

Conclusion

If SpaceX launches an IPO, the market may reframe the entire space industry as a core infrastructure platform, similar to cloud computing, electricity, or AI compute.

That shift could trigger a broad revaluation of the entire satellite and launch ecosystem, potentially lifting valuations across the space sector. 🚀

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