To The Moon

$NVDA$

I’m starting to think Trump is running the same playbook as last year — stall through March, let things get ugly in early April, then bounce.

Monday saw 62k of the April 2nd 160 puts open $NVDA 20260402 160.0 PUT$ . Meanwhile, weekly 165 and 167.5 puts got closed out. Bearish flows are still there, but the consensus is breaking down compared to last Friday.

One collar trade caught my eye: sell 180 call $NVDA 20260717 180.0 CALL$ , buy 2x 130 puts $NVDA 20260717 130.0 PUT$ .

The 180 call premium? ~$20. The trader’s view: NVDA won’t break 200 by July. Selling the call funds the puts.

If the script holds — and we stall into next week’s monthly expiry — NVDA gets pinned right between 180 and 190.

And Trump? His team probably told him: don’t escalate before triple witching.

$SPY$

If triple witching is the line in the sand, then a bounce to 690 isn’t out of the question. War’s not like tariffs — can’t just talk your way out. Iran and Israel aren’t co-stars in this show. So the bid below 660? That’s the hedge.

Next two weeks: 670–690 chop.

$USO$

Two camps on oil:

One says USO stays above 100 through Q3. That trade: sell 100 put $USO 20261016 100.0 PUT$  + buy 95 put $USO 20261016 95.0 PUT$ .

The other says we see 70 in H1. That’s a butterfly: buy 90 put, sell 2x 70 puts, buy 50 put $USO 20260618 90.0 PUT$  / $USO 20260618 70.0 PUT$  / $USO 20260618 50.0 PUT$ .

Call flows? Closing, taking profits. Bulls are stepping back. But after that one-day flush? Bears aren’t exactly rushing in.