To The Moon

Media Landscape.

I had one post on $Netflix(NFLX)$ on its forward stock split back in November 2025.

Shortly after, it was announced that it has received approval to purchase & merge $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ into its stable.

Since then, I have also covered the tussle over Warner Bros on 3 other occasions:

• 26 Feb 2026 - NFLX - Last Chance to Buy 'Cheap' ?

• 09 Jan 2026 - NFLX vs PSKY Clash : Best Entry Is Now !

• 10 Dec 2025 - WBD bid war begins : NFLX vs PSKY vs Trump (?)

• 08 Dec 2025 - The Winner Is NFLX... Errh, Not So Fast !

• 26 Nov 2025 - NFLX : BUY After 14 Nov Split. Don't Miss Out !

To be objective, I am according airtime to NFLX’s rival - $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$.

This company eventually beat the streaming giant and seize the crown jewel of Hollywood.

The $110 billion acquisition price tag:

• Represents one of the largest media consolidations in history, surpassing Disney's $71.3 billion acquisition of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets in March 2019.

• Effectively consolidates 2 of the "Big 5" Hollywood studios, creating a content library that rivals $Walt Disney(DIS)$ in sheer volume.

With the bidding war over, now comes the hard part - integrating a huge company (by market cap), into a ‘smaller’ outfit.

According to $Bank of America(BAC)$ Securities’ arm - this (merger) will take time.

In a research note on PSKY, dated Mon, 9 Mar 2026, the bank has:

• Reiterated an “Underperform” rating on PSKY.

• Slashed its price target to $11 from $13.

• Remarked that while the merger adds to the company’s long-term potential, the pathway to realizing it will be long & uncertain.

The Fall.

Investors seem to agree, as PSKY has fallen by -13.06% to $9.72 by Fri, 13 Mar 2026. (see below)

This puts the stock on record for falling a 9th time in the past 12 sessions.

Effectively, it has given back the +20.84% gain seen on 27 Feb 2026, the day it announced the Warner purchase. (see above)

Trading volume has cooled drastically since that peak. also. (see above)

While investors reacted negatively to the stock price, PSKY remains in a state of flux following its recent leadership change as well.

Merger & Leadership

Warner Bros. join PSKY with the latter still in its early integration phase over last summer’s Paramount and Skydance Media merger.

This brings both companies under the leadership of CEO David Ellison, son of $Oracle(ORCL)$ co-founder Larry Ellison.

Adding an even larger entity like Warner Bros. into an ongoing reorganization will "certainly be challenging" remarked BofA analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich.

When fully merged, the conglomerate’s reach would be vast:

• Combined, Paramount Pictures and Warner Bros, control 30% of US box office.

• Key franchises would include titles like Star Trek, Harry Potter and DC comics.

• In 2025, these 3 franchises alone accounted for an estimated $1.2 billion in global licensing and merchandise revenue.

• Networks like CBS, TNT, and CNN could slow the decline of linear television by adding to PSKY’s video inventory.

However, Ehrlich notes too that PSKY’s plan to release 30 films a year (15 films from Paramount and Warner respectively) is a massive undertaking.

For context, this output demand would require PSKY to manage a production pipeline nearly double the size of any major studio schedules, significantly increasing the risk of theatre fatigue and high-profile flops.

Financial Strain: Debt and Future Bids.

Ellison appears willing to pay top dollar to beef up PSKY’s entertainment offerings.

The company has allegedly, secured rights to both - South Park and Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) events by outbidding competitors.

Securing UFC rights is crucial, as live sports remain one of the few "appointment viewing" categories left in the streaming era.

The UFC deal is rumored to be worth upwards of $300 million annually, a +40% increase over the previous domestic rights agreement.

It is also believed that PSKY’s management will continue the aggressive posture, when it comes to content investment.

Another Bidding Soon !

Even before the dust has settled, the next bidding war on the horizon, is fast approaching:

• PSKY is bracing for the next National Football League (NFL) media deal.

• Management has confirmed in February 2026, that the league talks are a major part of their future profit forecasts.

• To keep the games’ rights, David Ellison may have to accept a huge price increase that could further strain company's finances, according to BAC’s analyst Ehrlich. (see below)

Note:

• The original NFL broadcast rights contract with CBS (under Paramount) is valued at $2.1 billion annually. This deal, part of the league's 11-year media package.

• Recent negotiations in March 2026 discuss a potential 50-60% fee increase to over $3.1 billion yearly and the removal of the opt-out clause “allowing the NFL to terminate after the 2029-30 season“.

In short, if the new re-negotiated NFL contract with Paramount Skydance (CBS) is signed, the yearly additional financial burden to PSKY, would be about $0.9 billion - $1.26 billion per year.

Will PSKY be able to afford this ?

PSKY’s Debt Profile:

WBD’s final price tag: $110 billion.

Total Debt Load: $79 billion for the combined entity upon closing (expected Q3 2026).

• $39 billion in brand-new transaction debt used to pay out WBD shareholders.

• $40 billion (approximately) in existing debt that was "rolled over" or assumed from WBD’s previous balance sheet.

Net Debt-to-Ebitda:

• Expected to be 4.3x upon closing.

• In other words, PSKY debt will be more than 4x its yearly earnings

• The company plans to cut this to 3.0x (investment-grade) within 3 years.

Price Target - Revisions.

Given the many risks facing PSKY (see above), it is clear why major investment firms have revised its price target since 26 Feb 2026:

• 26 Feb 2026 - $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ cut price target (PT) to $12 from $14 while keeping “Hold” rating.

• 26 Feb 2026 - $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ cuts PT to $11 from $12 and keeps “Underweight” rating.

• 27 Feb 2026 - Wolfe Research cut PT to $10 from $13 and maintains “Underperform” rating.

• 27 Feb 2026 - Evercore ISI adjusts PT to $11 from $14 and maintains “In Line” rating.

• 09 Mar 2026 - $Wells Fargo(WFC)$ sets PT at $10 and rating as “Underweight”.

• 10 Mar 2026 - BAC adjusts PT to $11 from $13,and maintains “Underperform” rating.

Technical Analysis.

In the meantime, it will be prudent to take a look at PSKY’s technical indicators of (i) simple moving averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI. (see below)

PSKY's technical indicators reveal a sharp downtrend, with price testing lows near $9.72 amid continual Middle East unrest.

(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMA).

• On Fri, 13 Mar 2026, PSKY ended the day at $9.72 /share.

• This is well below its 20-day SMA ($11.11), 50-day SMA ($11.43), confirming sustained bearish control.

• Short-term, the death cross (shorter SMAs under longer ones) indicates immediate downside risk.

• PSKY ‘officially’ does not have a 200-day SMA. This is because the PSKY merger (completed in late 2025), has only been trading publicly for about 6 months as of March 2026.

(2) MACD.

• The MACD line (-0.32) is above the Signal Line (-0.12), with both indicators remaining firmly below the Zero line.

• This reflects a persistent underlying downtrend and notable weakness in PSKY's current trajectory.

• PSKY is experiencing a technical breakdown, characterized by expanding negative momentum as the gap between the MACD and Signal line widens.

• Last but not least, negative divergence (-0.20) indicates that downward momentum is actively strengthening rather than slowing down, implying a bottom has yet to be established.

(c) Relative Strength Index (RSI)

• PSKY’s RSI currently sits at 36.83, positioning the stock in a weak, bearish neutral zone.

• Although it is not yet "oversold" by definition (that requires a dip below 30.00), it indicates that selling momentum is dominant and the stock is struggling to find any meaningful buying support.

In summary - PSKY is ‘technically’ weak based on the indicators’ readings.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

I believe investors and fund managers are walking away because after doing the Math, they know PSKY has overpaid on the WBD acquisition, no matter how the deal looks on paper.

In an era of falling cinema attendance, taking on $79 billion debt is just irresponsible.

Global trend.

• According to the European Audiovisual Observatory, global attendance fell -8.8% (in 2024) to 4.8 billion, that is only 68% of 2019 levels.

Singapore context.

• Singapore, touted as having "one of the highest per capita cinema attendances in the world", is not spared.

• Attendance registered a huge dip of -16%, to 8.4 million (2024) from peak 22.13 million (2011).

• The -62% decline from the peak highlights a structural shift in consumer behavior toward home streaming over the theatrical experience.

There is simply no way to guarantee that PSKY will produce megahit after megahit movie to pay off that massive debt.

Until they do, investors will continue to stay away. To quote “The Terminator” movie tagline: "I'll be back !" For PSKY, that return remains to be seen.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• ORCL - A Buy Post Q3 Earnings or Debt Trap?

• LVMUY - Exit now or Be trapped forever ?

• US Market 2026 winners - War & Wattage !

• Do you think PSKY is a “Buy” now ’?

• Do you think with all the additional expenses, the plan PSKY has on hand, will pan out nicely ?

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