The End of Q1 & A “Meh” Market
I’ve been in something of a rut for weeks. Maybe it’s writer’s block. Maybe it’s a weird market.
It seems like stocks are slowly sliding lower while some kind of economic calamity is on the horizon.
If the oil experts are right, oil $WTI Crude Oil - main 2605(CLmain)$ could go to $200 per barrel, and an economic slowdown on a global scale would likely be a matter of time.
If AI experts are right, we’re all going to lose our jobs and be irrelevant by the end of the year.
And yet, the market doesn’t seem to care. And maybe that’s the right answer because both oil and AI fears are overblown.
In fact, the market is welcoming a SpaceX IPO at a $2 trillion valuation, which is insane on so many levels.
Surely, Anthropic or OpenAI are next, despite businesses that incinerate money.
Rationally, this doesn’t make sense. Unless it does.
We’ve exited Q1 2026, and we will start getting earnings soon. If earnings are OK, but not terrible, it may be good news for the market. Inflation didn’t break the consumer, AI didn’t break the consumer, and now rising prices at the pump didn’t break the consumer or businesses.
We may have entered a more resilient economic state than we’ve ever been in. Maybe.
The Lesson?
I write this because investing is some combination of head and gut. Run the numbers all you want, buying at the bottom is more gut than head, and vice versa.
The reason I invest every month is that I can’t predict what’s going to happen in the short term. My gut can be wrong, and often is.
I would have thought tariffs would have had a bigger impact on the economy than they did.
I would have thought a falling dollar would have hurt imports.
I would have thought higher oil prices would hurt consumer spending and jobs.
All of those inclinations were wrong.
What I know with more certainty is that long-term, the companies I invest in will be much bigger 10 or 20 years from now than they are today. That’s more predictable than what the market will do next week.
I still have concerns about buying the highly hyped portions of the market, but I can stay away from those. What I won’t do is miss out on the few major up days for the market by trying to time investments short-term.
Trying to time the market is not a winning strategy, and Asymmetric Investing is about stacking the deck in our favor in as many ways as possible.
I’ll keep buying, and over time, that will put the Asymmetric Portfolio in a position to beat the market and demonstrate how to build wealth long-term.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
