To The Moon

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just ripped higher over the past two weeks. That move was fueled by optimism around a US and Iran ceasefire and the possibility of broader de-escalation. Once again, the market reminded us how fast it can recover when sentiment shifts.

But I'm not trusting this move blindly. There are a few technical concerns that need to be respected before anyone gets comfortable chasing this bounce.

The Monthly BX Is Still Dark Red

Even after this rally, the Monthly BX has not flipped. It's still dark red.

That matters more than most people realize. When macro buying pressure isn't there, rallies can turn into traps. In real bull cycles, dips lead to breakouts. In weaker conditions, bounces lead to rejection. That's the structural difference between a healthy market and one you need to be careful in.

Now, a red Monthly BX doesn't automatically mean a full bear market. Statistically, it tends to lead to a 10 to 15 percent correction over roughly three months. We've already seen most of that play out. So I'm not calling for a collapse. But I'm also not chasing this bounce.

The 33 Fair Value Band Has Flipped

Trend is red.

The rule is simple. When price is above a green band, dips get bought. When price is below a red band, rallies get sold. That shift in polarity changes how you should approach every setup in front of you. It doesn't mean every rally fails. It means the odds have shifted, and you trade accordingly.

We're Pushing Into the Point of Control

The market is now pressing into a major volume profile level. This is the highest traded area over roughly the last 150 candles, which means a huge amount of positioning sits here.

These levels act as strong support when price approaches from below, and strong resistance when price approaches from above. Right now, it's resistance. A rejection here would not be surprising.

Smart Money Zone Structure Turned Bearish

Short-term structure turned bearish after losing the $652 swing low. Historically, that kind of break sets up a move back into the bear smart money zone, followed by a potential rejection. That's the path of least resistance until structure repairs itself.

So What Are We Actually Doing?

We're not shorting. That's not the system.

Instead, we've rotated out of extended big tech names and into sectors showing breakout potential. That's where the relative strength is, and that's where we want to be positioned.

Could the market pull back from here? Yes. And if it does, the fund will take some heat. That's part of the system. We're not hedging everything. We're not going to cash. Because both of those decisions can cost us the move we're actually positioned for.

We've tested sitting out when the Monthly BX is red. The results were worse than staying engaged with the right rotation. So the plan doesn't change.

The Bottom Line

Stay disciplined. Stay objective. Accept that volatility is part of the game.

After this bounce, we're roughly flat on the year. Not ideal. We'd rather be up 10 to 12 percent right now. But this is not a flaw in the strategy. It's the cost of playing a long-term edge.

You don't win every month. You don't win every year. But if you stick to the system, you win over time.

That's the trade-off. And it's one I'll take every single cycle.