To The Moon

My Investing Muse (25May2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies

Bosch is slashing 22,000 jobs in Germany and slowly abandoning its own homeland just to survive. Germany lost 486,000 jobs in just 3 months, mostly in industry. The “economic miracle” is dying in real time. - X user Global Dissident

Goldman Sachs warned that AI could impact 300 million jobs globally. Many laughed it off. Now, companies are cutting thousands of roles while openly blaming AI, even as they post record profits. Meta just laid off 8,000 people while pouring over $100B into AI this year alone. And we’re still in the 1st inning. - Source: Goldman Sachs

Meta cut 8,000 people today. A survivor wrote about a teammate who slept 4 hours a night for months. Commits at 3am. Commits at 6am. IC4. Strong reviews. No PIP. Cut anyway. Working harder doesn't move you up the layoff list. You don't survive by being valuable to them. You survive by not needing them. - X user George Pu

More than 1,000 garment workers in Yangon’s Shwepyithar Township will lose their livelihoods at the end of June when Kings Rich Fashion, a supplier for global fashion giant H&M, shuts its doors. - Irrawaddy

More than 5,100 freight-related layoffs hit US supply chain sector FreshRealm, Amazon contractors, logistics providers and manufacturers slash jobs amid restructuring and softer industrial demand - FreightWaves

4,000 Cisco employees lost their jobs this morning. Last night the company raised AI order guidance. From $5B to $9B. Stock jumped 17% after hours. 12 hours between the earnings and the layoff. The money is moving. The people are not.

My thoughts

Market Risks and Positioning

There are growing concerns that the economy may be showing early signs of strain. Some investors also remain uneasy about the disconnect between market performance and the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical conflict.

The market may still be capable of extending its bull run in the near term. Even so, periods of strong performance are often followed by profit-taking as investors reassess valuations, risk, and the macroeconomic outlook.

Several factors suggest that a correction would not be unusual within the current cycle. These include signals from the bond market, softer GDP growth, unemployment rising toward 4.3%, and elevated debt levels across the federal, corporate, and consumer sectors. Viewed in that context, market peaks and pullbacks remain a normal part of the broader business cycle.

Market Context and Workforce Rationalisation

The ongoing wave of layoffs across the US technology sector is a reminder of how quickly market conditions can shift. In some cases, companies may indeed have built organizations with excess capacity, and workforce reductions may not immediately disrupt operations or financial performance. However, the full operational impact often becomes clear only after several months.

Layoffs framed around AI adoption can also reflect pressure on management teams to demonstrate returns on years of AI-related capital expenditure. In such cases, careful due diligence is essential. Companies need a clear understanding of which processes can be redesigned, where automation is genuinely effective, and where human oversight remains necessary.

There are also practical implementation risks to consider, including poor data quality, misrepresented processes, and deliberate or inadvertent system misuse. These issues can undermine performance, particularly when organizations move too quickly. Given the setbacks already seen at companies such as Salesforce and Klarna, further execution challenges would not be surprising. Ultimately, management teams must take responsibility if these decisions are made without sufficient planning and control.

The Case for an AI-Human Operating Model

I believe there is a strong case for a more balanced future, which I would describe as an AI-human interface (AIHI) model. Organizations and markets often move from one extreme to another, and AI adoption may follow the same pattern. Expectations that AI can fully replace human involvement are likely to give way to a more practical model in which human judgment remains central.

This is where the concept of humans in the loop becomes increasingly important. While the transition may involve meaningful disruption and short-term pain points, a more sustainable equilibrium is likely to emerge—one in which AI augments human capability rather than attempting to eliminate it. As with previous periods of technological change, adaptation will be difficult, but it will also create new ways to work and grow.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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