GOLD: The Short-term Trajectory of Gold is Currently Caught Between Two Opposing Forces
International news developments: The short-term trajectory of gold is currently caught between two opposing forces—the expectation of significant easing in the Middle East's geopolitical tensions and the persistent hawkish narrative from the Federal Reserve. $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$S&P 500(.SPX)$
1. Key bearish factor: U.S.-Iran financial asset agreement reached, reducing geopolitical risk aversion
Significant progress: According to the latest reports, with Qatar’s mediation, the United States and Iran have reached an understanding regarding Iran’s frozen financial assets. Markets widely expect both sides to formally announce the deal within the next one or two days.
Risk-off unwind: As expectations for U.S.-Iran talks surged dramatically, global market sentiment reversed sharply over the past 24 hours. International oil prices plunged (WTI crude falling below $91), while global equities rallied broadly and risk assets surged. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, lost its appeal, prompting a massive outflow of risk-averse capital that drove spot gold prices down rapidly below $4,550 during trading.
2. Macroeconomic bearish factors: Rising bets on Fed rate hikes, dollar remains resilient
Persistently high interest rates: Recent U.S. core inflation has shown no clear signs of cooling, and economic data continues to reflect resilience. Markets have fully embraced the "higher for longer" narrative—expecting elevated interest rates for an extended period—pushing back significantly the anticipated timing of a Fed pivot toward rate cuts, and even increasing speculation about further tightening.
Dollar strength persists: The combination of hawkish Fed expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty has kept the U.S. dollar index trading near its one-month high around 99.33. A strong dollar exerts substantial upward pressure on gold priced in USD, weighing heavily on its valuation.
Currently, fundamental and technical factors are converging into a "bearish resonance." Until the official U.S.-Iran deal is finalized or there is a sudden reversal in Middle Eastern tensions, gold is likely to continue consolidating downward throughout the day, searching for key support levels.
😍 Been eyeing Tiger merch but short on Tiger Coins? Now's your chance.
🎁 We’ve selected 4 high-demand items across practial, lifestyle, and learning, now with a lower redemption threshold!
Hot Merch Returns · Up to 43% Off
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
