To The Moon

A 12.6% one-day decline is significant, but by itself it does not confirm that the memory supercycle has peaked.

The key question is why the stock fell:

If the decline was driven mainly by valuation compression and profit-taking, especially after a very strong run and high expectations, the long-term memory thesis may remain intact.

If it reflects evidence of weakening NAND pricing, customer inventory corrections, or deteriorating demand, then it would be more concerning.

At present, the industry's structural drivers remain broadly supportive:

AI servers continue to require more high-performance storage.

Enterprise SSD demand is stronger than in previous cycles.

Supply discipline across major NAND manufacturers is much better than in past booms.

However, after a record rally, expectations became extremely optimistic. Stocks can correct 20% to 30% even while earnings continue to improve.

For investors:

Long-term investors: A gradual accumulation strategy after such sharp sell-offs is reasonable, provided the investment thesis has not fundamentally changed.

Short-term traders: Caution is warranted. Stocks that fall over 10% in a day often remain volatile, and waiting for price stabilisation may reduce the risk of catching a falling knife.

Overall, I would view this as more likely a correction within a cyclical uptrend than definitive proof that the memory supercycle is over. The next earnings reports, NAND pricing trends, and management guidance from SanDisk, SK Hynix, Micron and Samsung will be more important than a single trading session in determining whether the supercycle remains intact.