To The Moon

Economic Preview: Key Data Releases (week of 27Jul2026)

Consumption and Consumer Sentiment

June’s Durable Goods orders are forecast to rise by 1.6%, a notable improvement from the previous reading of -4.5%. This rebound is a positive indicator for consumption and suggests stronger demand momentum.

The CB Consumer Confidence reading for July is forecast at 92.1. This points to weaker consumer confidence and lower market optimism, which may influence future consumption patterns.

Energy Demand Indicator

Crude oil inventories remain an important reference point for assessing producer expectations and future consumption. If inventories come in above expectations, it may suggest stronger supply conditions; if they fall below expectations, it could point to firmer demand.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision

The most important and closely watched event in the coming week will be the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Current forecasts suggest that rates may remain unchanged at 3.75%.

However, the market’s focus will likely be on the FOMC statement and press conference. Investors will be looking for guidance from the Federal Reserve on its policy outlook, inflation expectations, and future rate path.

Any suggestion of a potential rate increase could trigger higher market volatility, especially if the Fed signals a more cautious or hawkish stance.

Inflation and GDP Growth Data

The next key release will be the June Core PCE Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. This data will be important in shaping expectations for the direction and timing of future interest rate decisions.

If the Core PCE Price Index remains elevated or continues to trend higher, the Federal Reserve may face pressure to raise rates faster than markets expect.

Second-quarter GDP will also be announced, with growth forecast at 2.3%. This would be an improvement from the previous 2.1% reading and would provide a useful indication of the economy’s overall strength.

Labour Market Update

Initial jobless claims will be another important release in the coming week. The previous reading stood at 187,000. If claims rise, this could become an additional factor for the Federal Reserve to consider when assessing the labour market and future policy direction.

Manufacturing Outlook

The week will conclude with two important manufacturing indicators:

· July Chicago PMI: A key reference for the manufacturing outlook in Chicago.

· China Manufacturing PMI for July: Forecast at 49.9, which suggests mild contraction. Beyond China’s domestic economy, this figure also provides insight into broader global demand conditions.

Earnings Calendar (27Jul2026)

This week features several major earnings releases, including Baker Hughes, PayPal, Coca-Cola, Boeing, UPS, Visa, Apple, Amazon, ExxonMobil, Moderna, and Chevron.

We begin with UPS.

Here is how UPS earnings serve as an economic reference (Google):

UPS is a reliable economic bellwether because its logistics network handles about 6% of U.S. GDP and 3% of global GDP. By moving raw materials, finished goods, and e-commerce orders, its earnings offer a timely snapshot of broad economic health.Rising package volumes and express shipping suggest stronger business investment, retail activity, and consumer confidence. Falling volumes or a shift to cheaper delivery options can signal tighter spending, inventory slowdowns, and economic.

UPS Valuation and Market Sentiment

UPS shares have risen 10.84% over the past year. Technical analysis currently points to a “strong buy” rating, while analyst sentiment is “buy,” with a price target of $111.04 and a potential upside of 0.25%.

With EPS of $6.18 and a P/E ratio of 18.8, UPS appears attractive from a valuation perspective. Before reaching a conclusion, it is important to review the company’s financials in more detail.

Financial statements are a useful starting point for assessing a business, but they should not be the only basis for evaluation. Qualitative factors such as brand strength, competitive moat, innovation, and capital expenditure should also be considered.

Financial Performance

UPS’s financial performance from FY2021 to FY2025 shows a decline in revenue from $97.2 billion to $88.6 billion. Revenue peaked in 2022 at $100.3 billion before trending lower.

Profitability has also weakened over the same period. Net profit fell from $23.2 billion to $20.0 billion, while net income declined from $12.8 billion to $5.5 billion. The current TTM net profit margin stands at 5.94%, and TTM return on investment is 11.77%.

Balance Sheet Position

Over the same period, total assets increased from $69.4 billion in 2021 to $73.0 billion in 2025. Total liabilities rose slightly from $55.1 billion to $56.8 billion, while total equity increased from $14.2 billion to $16.2 billion.

Debt remains a key concern. Long-term debt to equity MRQ stands at 143.52%, while total debt to equity MRQ is 181.51%, indicating a relatively high leverage position.

Cash Flow Trends

Cash from operations declined from $15.0 billion in 2021 to $8.4 billion in 2025. Cash from financing has remained negative since 2021, suggesting ongoing efforts by the business to reduce debt. In 2025, cash from financing ended at -$4.1 billion.

Levered free cash flow also declined, falling from $7.8 billion in 2021 to $5.1 billion in 2025.

UPS top news in Q2/2026 (compiled by Gemini and validated by DeepSeek):

Between April and June 2026, UPS focused on navigating strategic shifts and cost realignment:

• Q1 Earnings Beat (Late April): UPS reported Q1 2026 revenue of $21.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.07, surpassing Wall Street expectations. However, overall net income fell to $864 million due to lower domestic volume and operational contraction.

• Network Transformation: CEO Carol Tomé emphasized progress on UPS’s efficiency initiatives, capturing $600 million toward a $3 billion annual cost-cutting goal. The company continued pivoting away from lower-margin e-commerce volumes to focus on higher-margin sectors like healthcare.

• Dividend Delivery (May/June): Demonstrating financial stability, UPS declared its standard $1.64 per share quarterly dividend on May 6 (paid June 4).

Upcoming Earnings Outlook

For the upcoming earnings release on 28 July 2026, UPS is expected to report EPS of $1.67 and revenue of $21.82 billion. While these figures are important, the market outlook provided by UPS may carry greater significance.

Management’s outlook could provide insight not only into UPS’s business direction, but also into broader global economic conditions.

Given the above, I prefer to monitor UPS. What the outlook represents can also be for the greater economy, and not just the outlook of UPS as a company.

Market Outlook of S&P500 (27Jul2026)

Technical Analysis Overview

MACD Indicator

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator for the S&P 500 just completed a crossover and is on a downtrend.

Moving Averages

Examining the moving averages, the most recent price action shows that the last candlestick has been above the 200-day (MA200) moving average but below the 50-day (MA50) moving average. This pattern indicates a bullish shift in both the long term and bearish in the short term. Notably, both the MA50 and MA200 lines have continued to trend upward, indicating a bullish outlook in both the short and long term.

We had some issues with the charts from both Yahoo Finance and Investing. Pardon missing the other indicators like Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and the Exponential Moving Averages.

Other Technical Analysis

Based on the daily interval, technical analysis recommends a “Strong Sell” rating with 5 indicators showing a “Buy” rating and 16 indicators showing a “Sell” rating.

CNN Fear & Greed Index

With a score of “39”, CNN’s Fear & Greed Index is suggesting that the general market sentiment is “Fear”. The “Fear” sentiment has continued from the previous week.

Weekly Outlook

The bottom crossover of the MACD is complete. Based on the above, the S&P500 should be Bearish for the new week.

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Jul2026)

META $12 billion bond offer comes in at 7.6% on “weak demand”. So much pain coming to Oracle. On Monday, whose bonds are rapidly selling off at 7.9% to 8.1% while Meta was around 6.7%. - X user Roger

Will this save Oracle?

Are people leaving a sinking ship in BlackRock?

JUST IN: OpenAI caught one of its AI agents leaving instructions for future versions to escape internal controls. - X user Watcher Guru

Nike is planning to cut off thousands of online distributors in China beginning in January as the sneaker giant looks to clean up what’s become a messy digital marketplace and get the region back to growth, the company said Tuesday. Starting next year, Nike’s online footprint will shift primarily to the retailer’s official website and app, and the storefronts it operates on Tmall, and Douyin, some of China’s largest online marketplaces and social platforms. - CNBC

My Investing Muse (27Jul2026)

Layoffs, closures and Delinquencies (by Gemini & Grok)

Key corporate and market stress signals (week of ~July 20, 2026):

Major Layoffs

• British American Tobacco: ~9,000 roles (~20% of non-US workforce).

• Microsoft: ~4,800 global positions.

• Telefónica Germany: up to 1,100 roles (~16%).

• Verizon: ~3,000 affected (mostly store transfers + corporate cuts).

• Samsung: 800+ U.S. roles affected (many relocation offers).

• Entain: 500 positions.

Closures/Restructuring

• Metro (Singapore): exiting Paragon and Causeway Point stores.

• Volkswagen: cutting model lines by up to 50% and reviewing European plants.

Bankruptcies

• U.S. larger corporates: S&P reports 372 filings YTD—a 16-year high, led by industrial, consumer, and healthcare.

• Small businesses: Subchapter V filings up ~50% YoY amid high rates and inflation.

Foreclosures

• U.S.: ATTOM data shows H1 filings of 227,548 (+21% YoY), highest rates in Florida, South Carolina, and Indiana, driven by rising insurance, taxes, and costs.

These reflect ongoing cost pressures, restructuring, and financial strain across sectors.

My investing muse

The coming week presents several macroeconomic catalysts that may increase market volatility. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision remains the key event, but the market is likely to focus equally on the accompanying policy statement, economic outlook, and guidance on the future rate path. While expectations may lean toward policy easing, speculation around a potential rate increase could unsettle markets and warrants close attention.

The upcoming PCE inflation data will also be closely watched. As the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the release is likely to influence expectations for monetary policy and may have implications for both bond and equity markets.

In the technology sector, recent comments from OpenAI’s Sam Altman on the prospect of artificial superintelligence have renewed market interest in AI-driven innovation. However, such claims should be treated with caution and independently verified. Beyond the pace of innovation, investors should also monitor the governance and regulatory gaps surrounding AI, as weak oversight could create legal, operational, and reputational risks for both individuals and institutions.

Leverage remains another important risk factor. Reports of elevated foreclosures and significant leverage in financial markets, together with the recent margin-related sell-off in South Korea, highlight the potential downside of excessive borrowing. As Charlie Munger cautioned, leverage can amplify losses when markets turn. With U.S. leverage trades reportedly reaching $1.4 trillion—and potentially more outside visible data—any meaningful correction could trigger margin calls and forced liquidations, intensifying market declines. Given stretched valuations, hedging should be considered as part of the current investment strategy.

Financial Strategy and Outlook

Let us spend within our means, invest only what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. Let us review our current holdings and divest from businesses losing their competitive advantages. Additionally, I will consider adding both hedging strategies and defensive positions to our portfolio to mitigate risk.

As we move forward, it is crucial to conduct thorough due diligence before assuming any new responsibilities.

Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.

@TigerStars

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