Chart: Old Coin vs New Coin
In absolute terms, Bitcoin’s maximum drawdown this cycle (so far) is -53%.
But when priced in Gold $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ , Bitcoin was down -70% earlier this year (the chart below shows the relative decline in Bitcoin vs Gold).
That’s a major downturn, and on par with the 3 previous big down cycles in Bitcoin. And it’s about at the point where you start looking for opportunities.
In weighing up Old Coin (Gold) vs New Coin (Bitcoin) we can see both coins were riding the same waves of liquidity and debasement from 2023 all the way up until 2025 —when Bitcoin peaked first (followed by gold this year).
As things stand now, gold is staging a strong rally off support after a -25% correction.
Meanwhile Bitcoin is stuck in the range; glued to support after a -50% bear market.
While I can see the bull case for Gold (inflation risk, aversion for treasuries, central bank buying, (geo)political risk, fiscal concerns), when I look at my indicator set I see valuations are still very expensive, sentiment is still consensus bullish, positioning is crowded net-long, and despite the rally —a number of major topping signals lit up this year. I’d say a lot needs to go right for gold to break out to new highs and beyond.
For Bitcoin it’s not much better, the technicals still look tenuous: it’s broken the long-term uptrend line, but still clinging to support. Monetary policy is turning to tightening and Bitcoin has decoupled from growth stocks (in a bad way). But on the upside, sentiment has been thoroughly washed out, and seasonality turns up for Bitcoin in October (which is when the 4-year cycle is due to bottom, and buyers likely return). So I’d say it’s probably still a waiting game for Bitcoin.
In weighing the two up, Bitcoin has clearly had the bigger reset in price and sentiment —while gold is still a consensus bullish trade.
Sentiment is not the be all and end all, but the way I look at it is this: sentiment tells you how many minds can change given the right reason. In that respect, there are more minds that can change from bullish (to bearish) on gold, and more minds that can change from bearish (to bullish) on Bitcoin.
🐯🪙 Share your choice and reasoning in the comments — thoughtful views may receive Tiger Coins!
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