Live Recap 2: US Equities Are Expensive — But Are They Priced for Perfection?
1.Live Review Introduction
Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Vyann, featuring Ross Dong, Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management. With US markets at the highest forward valuations of any major region, Ross walked through whether that premium is justified by fundamentals — or getting ahead of itself.
Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.
Catch up on the full recap series
2.The US Trades at the Top of the Range — With Growth to Match
US equities trade at roughly 21x forward earnings, the richest of any major region, but also carry the strongest expected forward earnings growth (~19–20%), well ahead of Europe, the UK and Hong Kong. Japan and Europe sit in the middle on both valuation and growth; the UK and Hong Kong are cheap but slower-growing.
3.The Verdict: Partly Justified, But Multiple Expansion Is Running Out of Room
Ross's takeaway: the US premium isn't pure optimism — it's partly backed by superior earnings growth. But with valuations already near the top of their historical range, he expects further upside to depend increasingly on companies actually delivering those earnings, not on paying up further for the same growth.
4.Cash Flow Is Surging — And Not Just at the Hyperscalers
Operating cash flow ex-tech has risen over $750bn in the past 12 months (+19% y/y), while tech OCF is up 37% y/y. Ross flagged the "multiplier effect" of what companies do with that cash — R&D, capex, and buybacks — as an underappreciated driver of the next equity leg. He pointed to a forecast ~$460bn buyback program for Micron alone, roughly 40% of total S&P 500 annual buybacks.
5.Who's Actually Under-Owned Right Now
Comparing institutional 13F weightings to S&P 500 weightings as of Q2 2026, mega-cap tech remains broadly under-owned relative to its index weight — $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-2.5%), $Apple(AAPL)$ (-2.3%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-1.5%) and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-1.3%) are the most under-owned large-cap names Ross tracks. On the flip side, $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$, $KLA Corporation(KLAC)$ and $Seagate Technology PLC(STX)$ are among the most over-owned relative to their S&P weighting.
Closing Takeaway
US valuations are elevated but not obviously disconnected from fundamentals — the US is paying more because it's growing more. The key swing factor from here isn't multiple expansion, it's earnings delivery, and positioning data suggests there's still room for institutions to add to mega-cap tech rather than chase it.
6.Risk Reminder
Equity valuations and positioning can shift quickly around earnings season and macro catalysts. Viewers without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.
7.Post-Event Resources
Follow Ross Dong on YouTube (TMI Partner, @tmi_invest), Tothemoon (Ross_Macro_Trading), X (@RossDongRD), or via tmipartner.com. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
- glitzii·08-28 16:22Priced for perfection feels too strong. Positioning in KLAC, SNDK and STX is still overweight versus the index, so big money clearly is not treating every expensive name the sameLikeReport