To The Moon

1.Live Review Introduction

Review Live >>

Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Vyann, featuring Ross Dong, Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management. Ross unpacked one of the most talked-about episodes of the summer — a forced hedge-fund liquidation that shook AI-adjacent stocks — and what it means for how AI semiconductor valuations look today.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

Catch up on the full recap series

• Live Recap 1: A Less Transparent Fed, a Treasury "Twist," and a 30-Year Yield Last Seen in 2007

• Live Recap 2: US Equities Are Expensive — But Are They Priced for Perfection?

• Live Recap 4: Gold's Crowded Bull Case, Portfolio Construction, and Q&A Highlights

2.From AI Conviction Trade to Forced Seller

Situational Awareness built a highly concentrated, leveraged portfolio around the AI infrastructure theme. In July, it suffered a 67% decline in portfolio value as long positions fell and software shorts moved against it. Facing margin pressure, the fund sold roughly $16bn of its public equity portfolio to Citadel.

3.Citadel's Rapid Unwind

Rather than holding the book, Citadel aggressively de-risked what it acquired — offloading more than 80% of the position within about three weeks across nearly 100 block trades totaling over $4bn, some of the largest intraday blocks of the year. Ross's read: Citadel's selling wasn't a bearish AI call, it was risk redistribution — and once that supply is absorbed, the affected names should trade more on fundamentals again.

4.The Valuation Reset in $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ and $Broadcom(AVGO)$

Against this backdrop, Nvidia's forward PE has compressed from roughly 30x in late 2025 to around 20x today; $Broadcom(AVGO)$ has fallen even further, from above 40x to roughly 20x. Ross emphasized this compression happened mainly because earnings estimates rose faster than share prices — not because the AI growth thesis deteriorated.

5.The Capex Supercycle Isn't Slowing Down

Combined AI-related capex estimates now sit at roughly $845bn for 2026, $1.37tn for 2027, and $1.45tn for 2028 — dramatic upward revisions versus November 2025 expectations. Ross's framing (echoing a recent Warren Buffett comment on $Alphabet(GOOGL)$): the number that matters isn't the capex figure itself, it's the ROIC those dollars generate.

6. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$'s Earnings, Fresh Off the Press

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ reported after market the same day: FQ2'27 revenue guidance of ~$108bn, prior-quarter revenue of $96.2bn (+106% y/y), data-center revenue of $89bn (+117% y/y) — even assuming zero China data-center compute revenue. Gross margin is expected to moderate only slightly, from 75% to 74%. Ross's takeaway: medium-to-long-term, he's raising his target on Nvidia, even if near-term swings continue.

Closing Takeaway

The AI infrastructure thesis wasn't broken by the July selloff — one very leveraged fund was. With valuations reset and capex still accelerating, Ross sees a healthier setup where further upside needs to come from earnings, not just AI enthusiasm.

7.Risk Reminder

Highly leveraged, concentrated positions and AI-related stocks can be highly volatile around earnings and macro catalysts. Viewers without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.

8.Post-Event Resources

Follow Ross Dong on YouTube (TMI Partner, @tmi_invest), Tothemoon (Ross_Macro_Trading), X (@RossDongRD), or via tmipartner.com. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.