To The Moon

1.Live Review Introduction

Review Live >>

Tiger Brokers livestream hosted by Vyann, featuring Ross Dong, Founder of Gongxing Academy and Partner at Morning Cloud Asset Management. Ross holds a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from Columbia University and spent his formative trading years at JP Morgan and KCG before moving to the buy side. His work spans US equities, Treasuries, macro policy and gold.

This session opened Ross's six-part outlook on US stocks, semis, Treasuries and gold heading into late 2026, starting with the macro backdrop: a Fed entering a less transparent era under new leadership, and a Treasury Department that's stepped directly into the bond market.

Disclaimer: The views expressed are those of the guest speaker and do not represent the official views of Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is strictly for education and discussion purposes and does not constitute financial advice.

Catch up on the full recap series

• Live Recap 2: US Equities Are Expensive — But Are They Priced for Perfection?

• Live Recap 3: Inside the Situational Awareness Unwind — And Why Nvidia's Multiple Just Got Cheaper

• Live Recap 4: Gold's Crowded Bull Case, Portfolio Construction, and Q&A Highlights

2.The Treasury Steps Into the Bond Market

Ross flagged the Treasury's August 19 announcement of a doubled long-end buyback size (from $2bn to at least $4bn per operation) as the standout macro event of the week — not because buybacks are new, but because of what they're now being used for.

3.Why Long Yields Are Rising Everywhere, Not Just in the US

The 30-year US Treasury yield has been trading near 5.3% — a level last reached in 2007. Ross was clear this isn't a purely American story: German, Japanese, UK, Italian and French long yields are rising in tandem, driven by Iran-conflict-linked energy prices, fading confidence in a sustained return to the Fed's inflation target, AI hyperscaler debt issuance competing with government bonds for capital, and a strong equity market making 5% Treasuries look less attractive.

4.From Liquidity Tool to "Treasury Twist"

The original buyback program existed to manage cash and improve liquidity in older, off-the-run Treasuries. Ross argued the current move is structurally different: issuing short-term bills to fund long-bond purchases reduces the duration private investors have to absorb — a deliberate attempt to cap long yields, which the market has nicknamed a "Treasury twist." His personal read: the Treasury doesn't want a 5.3% 30-year yield, and if the Iran conflict eases, he could see the 30-year fall back below 5%.

5.Core CPI Is Cooling Beneath the Surface

Shelter, used vehicles and other core services are moderating even as headline inflation stays elevated, with softer market rents still working their way into official data with a lag. Ross sees this giving the Fed room to ease gradually — without needing a sharp labor-market deterioration first.

6.A Less Transparent Fed Under Kevin Warsh

With new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh taking the Fed into Jackson Hole this week, Ross distinguished between "transparency" (which he called a genuine 30-year success story for markets) and "forward guidance" (which a chair can choose to scale back). His view: less transparency about the Fed's reaction function risks delaying how quickly monetary policy actually transmits into financial conditions — a mistake, in his words.

Closing Takeaway

The Treasury is no longer a passive observer of long yields — it's intervening. Combined with cooling core inflation and a Fed chair leaning toward less forward guidance, Ross's base case is for long yields to ease from here, absent a fresh geopolitical inflation shock.

7.Risk Reminder

Macro and rate-driven volatility can move bond and equity markets sharply in either direction. Viewers without sufficient foundational knowledge are advised to complete education modules before initiating live positions.

8.Post-Event Resources

Follow Ross Dong on YouTube (TMI Partner, @tmi_invest), Tothemoon (Ross_Macro_Trading), X (@RossDongRD), or via tmipartner.com. The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.