The intraday reversal from -2% to +5.50% was purely passive fund flows rebalancing MSCI weights—which is why it immediately gave back gains after hours. While the $31B capacity commitments from Kioxia/SanDisk and CXMT’s trial production show long-term structural AI demand, chasing spot prices ($2,100 vs contract) usually ends poorly once supply catches up. Stick with names that have secured multi-year volume commitments.
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- MatthewWalter·09-01 22:32Contract vs spot spread only matters if channel inventory stays tight. Once inventory normalizes, that premium usually compresses way faster than capacity ramps do.LikeReport