No, I would not say the memory supercycle is over. In fact, the latest data suggest we are still in the strong part of the cycle, although the risk/reward has changed dramatically because memory stocks have already run so far.
My view: the supercycle is alive, but we’re entering the “late-cycle / valuation” phase
The biggest evidence is supply-demand:
* Gartner forecasts memory revenue of $837B in 2026, up enormously from 2025, with another increase to over $1T in 2027. It expects DRAM revenue to rise 246.6% and NAND 371.9% in 2026.
* Omdia says AI demand is still exceeding available DRAM/HBM/NAND supply and expects bottlenecks to persist into 2027.
* Recent industry commentary says DRAM and NAND remain undersupplied, potentially through 2027.
* SK hynix itself describes 2026 as an HBM-led memory supercycle, with HBM3E transitioning toward HBM4.
So fundamentally, the cycle hasn’t broken, and hence, I would say the memory supercycle is not over as yet.
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- Dollydolly·09-10 08:02Those Gartner and Omdia numbers are still model outputs, not demand clearing in real shipments. If PC and handset demand stays soft, late-cycle oversupply can show up fastLikeReport