Most institutions' publication date is either late August or early September, after Kevin Warsh's speech but before PPI data is released. After yesterday's PPI exceeded expectations and oil price broke through 100, the actual market pricing has become much more aggressive than most institutions base cases. The probability of interest rate futures 76% interest rate hike has changed "September interest rate hike" from one scenario to a near-certainty.
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- AugustineMac-·09-11 15:22TOPMarket pricing ran ahead of the report window here. That gap between stale base cases and live PPI plus oil is where the repricing got violentLikeReport