Live Recap 1: Why Can America Carry So Much Debt? Inside the Dollar Advantage
1. Live Review Introduction
Live Review>>
Tiger Brokers’ What The Expert Says session featured Selina Han, Founder of Han Insights, Chief Product Officer of GSA Technologies and former Cboe economist, alongside James Early, CEO of Curia Financial and longtime investment research professional. Hosted by Esther Xiao, the discussion explored the Fall 2026 investment outlook through one central chain: Debt → Rates → Markets → Trades.
The first part of the discussion tackled one of the biggest macro questions facing investors: How can the U.S. continue carrying such a large and growing debt load without immediately destabilising its financial markets?
The answer begins not with debt, but with the economic and financial system supporting it.
Disclaimer: The session has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The views expressed are those of the speakers and do not represent Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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2. Rising Debt Has Not Stopped U.S. Wealth Creation
One of the presentation’s opening charts takes an unusually long view of U.S. equities. Despite wars, recessions, inflation shocks, financial crises and steadily rising government debt, U.S. large-company total returns have trended dramatically higher over almost two centuries.
The point is not that debt does not matter. Rather, debt should be viewed relative to the productive economy supporting it. The U.S. has repeatedly generated new economic value through industrialisation, technology, productivity growth, innovation and corporate earnings.
That helps explain why rising federal debt and rising stock prices have historically been able to coexist. The key question is not simply whether debt grows, but whether the economic capacity supporting that debt grows with it.
3. Why Has America Been Able to Borrow So Cheaply?
The next part of the discussion moved from equities into the bond market. Historically, U.S. borrowing costs have often remained relatively manageable compared with the economy’s growth rate, even as the absolute size of federal debt expanded.
The presentation traces part of this advantage back to the international monetary architecture established after World War II.
Under the Bretton Woods system, the U.S. dollar became the center of the post-war monetary order. Other currencies were linked to the dollar, while the dollar itself was convertible into gold. Even after formal gold convertibility ended, the global financial system had already become deeply organised around dollar settlement, dollar reserves and dollar assets.
The session then highlighted the U.S. geopolitical and energy relationships that reinforced that position during the 1970s. Energy trade, Treasury markets and international financial flows all helped preserve global demand for dollars after the original Bretton Woods system ended.
4. Dollar Dominance Is Still Enormous
Today, the dollar remains embedded throughout the financial system.
According to the figures shown in the presentation, the U.S. dollar participates in roughly 90% of global foreign-exchange transactions and makes up around 60% of global foreign-exchange reserves.
That creates an important structural benefit for Washington. Central banks, financial institutions, sovereign investors and corporations all need liquid dollar assets. U.S. Treasuries offer the scale and market depth required to absorb enormous pools of global capital.
This does not make U.S. borrowing risk-free, but it does mean America finances itself under conditions few other countries enjoy.
5. Did Leaving the Gold Standard Break the System?
The presentation also challenged a familiar claim: that ending the gold standard inevitably leads to runaway inflation.
In 1971, President Richard Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold.
The U.S. did experience severe inflation during the following decade. However, the longer historical record shows that inflation and deflation both occurred before and after gold convertibility.
The takeaway is that inflation cannot be reduced to one monetary arrangement. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, commodity prices, supply shocks, productivity and expectations all play a role.
6. What About the “End of the Petrodollar”?
Another argument challenged in the session was the claim that Saudi Arabia ended a supposed 50-year petrodollar agreement in 2024 and therefore undermined the foundation of dollar dominance.
The deck uses Saudi Arabia’s changing current-account position to show that the world has already evolved significantly since the 1970s.
The dollar’s role today is much broader than any single Saudi arrangement. It rests on the depth of U.S. markets, convertibility, global trade, the Treasury market, geopolitical influence and decades of institutional network effects.
The euro, renminbi, yen, pound and Swiss franc all provide alternatives in parts of the system, while $Gold.com(GOLD)$ remains an important reserve asset. Yet none currently reproduces the entire dollar ecosystem at comparable scale.
Closing Takeaway
America’s ability to carry a large debt burden is partly supported by a privilege few other governments possess: the dollar remains the center of global finance.
That advantage does not mean debt can rise indefinitely without consequences. The more important long-term risk may be gradual erosion rather than sudden collapse. If fiscal credibility weakens, even a modest decline in international dollar demand could matter for Treasury yields, asset valuations and capital flows.
The question is therefore not simply “How much debt does America have?”
It is “Can the economic and institutional system supporting that debt remain strong enough to sustain it?”
7. Risk Reminder
Long-term historical performance does not guarantee future results. Fiscal conditions, currency regimes and market valuations can change materially over time.
8. Post-Event Resources
Viewers can follow James Early on the Curia Financial website (https://curiafinancial.com). The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
