Live Recap 4: AI Still Dominates Wall Street — But the Next Winners May Look Very Different
1. Live Review Introduction
Tiger Brokers’ What The Expert Says session featured Selina Han, Founder of Han Insights, Chief Product Officer of GSA Technologies and former Cboe economist, alongside James Early, CEO of Curia Financial and longtime investment research professional. Hosted by Esther Xiao, the discussion explored the Fall 2026 investment outlook through one central chain: Debt → Rates → Markets → Trades.
The first stage of the AI rally was extraordinarily concentrated. A relatively small number of mega-cap technology stocks captured much of the investment, earnings growth and stock-market attention.
The presentation argues that 2026 may mark the beginning of a different phase: AI remains dominant, but market leadership is becoming increasingly dispersed.
Disclaimer: The session has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore. The views expressed are those of the speakers and do not represent Tiger Brokers or its affiliates. This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Want to see more of the livestream recap? Check it out here>>
Live Recap 1: Why Can America Carry So Much Debt? Inside the Dollar Advantage
Live Recap 2: The U.S. Debt Spiral — How Washington’s Deficits Could Reach Your Portfolio
Live Recap 3: A Fed Cut Is Not Automatically Bullish — What the Labor Market Is Really Saying
Live Recap 5: The S&P 500 Looks Calm — So Why Are Individual Stocks Moving So Much?
2. AI Drove an Extraordinary Share of the Bull Market
The deck cites $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ research estimating that approximately 75% of U.S. stock-market growth between November 2022 and September 2025 was linked to AI.
Another JPMorgan Asset Management estimate placed directly AI-linked companies at roughly 50% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.
The story extends beyond stock prices. Data-center construction has become a major component of capital spending, demonstrating that AI has developed into a real-economy infrastructure cycle rather than merely a financial-market narrative.
3. The Magnificent Seven Are No Longer One Trade
The deck’s 2026 data show growing divergence within the mega-cap group.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ represented approximately 7.9% of the S&P 500 and contributed around 18% of 2026 index earnings growth, while its shares had gained roughly 21%. $Alphabet(GOOG)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ also remained important earnings contributors.
Yet the relationship between size, earnings contribution and share-price performance was far from uniform. $Apple(AAPL)$ carried a 6.7% index weight but contributed only around 3% of earnings growth. Meta was negative in price terms despite contributing strongly to earnings growth, while $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ showed a negative earnings contribution and a double-digit YTD decline.
The “Magnificent Seven” label increasingly hides very different corporate realities.
4. Earnings Growth Is Spreading Beyond Mega-Cap Tech
One of the strongest signals of broadening comes from the rest of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$.
The presentation shows approximately 24% earnings growth for the S&P 493, compared with about 15% for the Magnificent Seven excluding $NVIDIA(NVDA)$.
That does not imply the mega-cap AI leaders have become irrelevant. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ remains one of the largest earnings engines in the entire index.
Instead, it suggests investors increasingly have alternatives.
5. Small Caps Are Participating — but With a Speculative Twist
The Russell 2000 provides another sign of broadening.
Profitable small caps were up roughly 18%, but unprofitable companies had risen around 45%.
That may reflect improving risk appetite, but it also deserves caution. Broader market participation is healthiest when it is supported by improving fundamentals. A rally led disproportionately by loss-making companies can also indicate speculative excess.
Closing Takeaway
The next phase of the AI market may require much more discrimination.
Investors increasingly need to distinguish between companies that can convert AI investment into durable profits, businesses facing margin pressure from heavy capex, and non-AI companies experiencing their own earnings acceleration.
The market may therefore be moving from a theme-driven rally toward a stock-selection market.
And that leads directly to one of the session’s most interesting ideas: dispersion.
6. Risk Reminder
Sector concentration, high valuations and rapidly changing technology cycles can amplify volatility in AI-linked stocks.
7. Post-Event Resources
Viewers can follow James Early on the Curia Financial website (https://curiafinancial.com). The full livestream replay is available on the Tiger Trade app.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
