My base case remains 25bp, but I am watching whether the 2026 and 2027 rate paths move higher. If the dot plot stays contained and guidance remains data-dependent, the market could see a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reaction. A higher rate path, however, could keep Treasury yields and the dollar firm.
Personally, I am not making a major move based on the headline alone. I would rather wait for the dot plot and press conference before deciding whether this is another tightening cycle or simply a one-off adjustment. Patience matters more to me than predicting every short-term move.
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