To The Moon

After a mid-August bounce, stocks largely went sideways in the third quarter, as upward momentum from the artificial intelligence trade waned and rising interest rates weighed on investor sentiment.

Last Week's Recap

1. Market Digest: NASDAQ Outperforms, Jobs Miss, Yield Curve Steepens, Fed Hike Odds Plunge

• Another mixed week — Tech strength lifted NASDAQ to a fractional gain, outperforming other major indexes for a sixth straight week. S&P 500 ended fractionally lower; Dow finished down more than 1%.

• Yield curve steepens — Some yields briefly touched highest since 2002 before retreating. 2-year Treasury ended flat at 4.84%; longer-duration yields rose, with 10-year at 5.28% and 30-year at 5.63%.

• Jobs setback — September added just 29,000 jobs (below 80,000-90,000 consensus); prior two months revised down by 60,000 combined. Unemployment rate rose to 4.2% (from 4.1%).

• Shifting rate outlook — CME FedWatch: ~79% probability Fed holds steady on October 28 (vs. 64% a week earlier), 21% odds of a hike. Market no longer expects back-to-back hikes.

• Moderating inflation — August PCE rose at a 3.4% annual rate (below 3.7% consensus); core PCE 3.0%, down from 3.3% in July and below expectations.

• September snapshot — $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ rose 1.9% in September; $S&P 500(.SPX)$ fell 0.5%; $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ declined 4.3%, snapping a five-month win streak.

• GDP upgrade — Q2 GDP final estimate revised up to 2.2% annual rate (from 1.5%), driven by increases in consumer and government spending.

• Mortgage rate spike — Average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 7.28% (from 7.03%), largest weekly increase in four years. Mortgage applications fell for four consecutive weeks.

2. US Market – SPX dips 0.27% as healthcare and retail drag offset chip strength

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ declined 0.27% and closed at 7,722.72, as a selloff in healthcare, retail, and mega-cap tech offset strength in semiconductor equipment and energy.

Industry leaders: Semiconductor Equipment (+9.27%), Alternative Carriers (+6.14%), and Electronic Components (+5.58%).

10 Popular Stocks:

• $Lam Research(LRCX)$ +10.24% — The semiconductor equipment maker surged on AI-driven wafer fabrication demand.

• $Cisco(CSCO)$ +5.15% — The networking giant advanced on AI infrastructure orders and enterprise demand.

• $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ — The AI chip leader gained on data-center revenue momentum.

• $Exxon Mobil(XOM)$ +2.13% — The energy major rose alongside firm Brent crude.

• $Apple(AAPL)$ -2.16% — The iPhone maker declined on profit-taking ahead of product launches.

• $Intel(INTC)$ -2.98% — The chipmaker pulled back on execution concerns.

• $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ -3.11% — The banking giant fell on rate outlook uncertainty.

• $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ -3.14% — The social-media giant declined on ad-spending concerns.

• $Wal-Mart(WMT)$ -3.45% — The retail giant slid on consumer-spending caution.

• $Eli Lilly(LLY)$ -3.43% — The pharma heavyweight retreated on GLP-1 pricing pressure.

• $Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)$ -5.6% — The healthcare bellwether was the week's worst large-cap performer, tumbling on pharmaceutical pipeline concerns and litigation overhang.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

3.Hong Kong Market – HSI tumbles 2.19% as broad-based selling engulfs banks, tech and retail

$HSI(HSI)$ : The Hang Seng Index plunged 2.19% and closed at 23,972.29, as heavy selling swept through Chinese banks, internet giants and consumer discretionary names. The index broke below the 24,000 psychological level.

The $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ collapsed 3.57% and closed at 4,157.94, with platform-economy and EV supply-chain names leading the tech benchmark to its lowest close in weeks.

Industry leaders: Advertising (+29.39%) led on digital marketing recovery and AI content-generation demand. Infant and Child Product (+25.05%) surged on policy-driven consumption stimulus hopes. Department Store (+18.32%) advanced on seasonal retail momentum, while Specialized Consumer Services (+11.22%) tracked resilient travel and lifestyle spending.

9 Popular Stocks:

• $ZJ INNOLIGHT(03308)$ 8.69% — The department store operator was the week's worst performer, collapsing on China consumer-spending slowdown and margin compression across the bricks-and-mortar retail complex.

• $BABA-W(09988)$ -5.09% — The tech conglomerate slumped on e-commerce margin fears, platform-economy profit-taking and lingering regulatory overhang.

• $TENCENT(00700)$ -3.92% — The internet giant declined on gaming and fintech valuation compression as Hang Seng Tech weakness deepened.

• $CATALYST ACQUISITION CORPORATION(CATL)$ -3.25% — The battery giant tracked the EV supply chain lower on lithium oversupply fears and EU tariff escalation concerns.

• $HSBC HOLDINGS(00005)$ -4.74% — The banking heavyweight fell on Asian lending margin pressure and rotation out of globally exposed financials.

• $ICBC(01398)$ -2.66% — The state-owned lender declined on NIM compression worries and property-sector credit exposure.

• $ABC(01288)$ -2.27% — Tracked the banking sector lower despite its defensive dividend yield, as financials faced broad-based selling.

• $CCB(00939)$ 1.29% — The state-owned lender proved relatively resilient, though still caught in the sector-wide downdraft.

• $PETROCHINA(00857)$ -1.04% — The upstream energy major was the most defensive large-cap name, with its modest decline reflecting firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

4. Singapore Market – STI slips 1.34% as Greater China and ASEAN SDRs drag the index below 5,700

$Straits Times Index(STI.SI)$ declined 1.34% and closed at 5,634.82, as heavy selling in Greater China tech SDRs, Indonesian telecom, and HSBC overwhelmed modest gains in gold and energy proxies. The index broke below the 5,700 support level amid broad-based risk-off sentiment across ASEAN and Hong Kong depositary receipts.

Top Sectors: Specialized Consumer Services (+18.18%) led on travel and lifestyle demand recovery. Environmental & Facilities Services (+11.21%) advanced on smart-city and sustainability capex. Specialized Finance (+6.24%) gained on fintech earnings momentum.

9 Popular Stocks:

• $GLD US$(O87.SI)$ +2.62% — The USD-denominated gold ETF advanced as safe-haven demand lifted bullion prices amid equity-market volatility.

• $PetroCN HK SDR 1to2(HPCD.SI)$ +0.65% — The oil major's SDR eked out a gain on firm Brent crude and OPEC+ supply discipline, proving defensive against the broader SDR rout.

• $Bank of CN HK SDR 1to1(HBND.SI)$ -1.03% — The Chinese state-owned bank's SDR slipped on profit-taking after recent strength and NIM compression concerns.

• $GLD SG$(GSD.SI)$ -2.57% — The SGD-denominated gold ETF tracked the yellow metal lower in local-currency terms, with FX translation effects offsetting some of the USD gold strength.

• $Alibaba HK SDR 5to1(HBBD.SI)$ -3.39% — The Chinese tech conglomerate's SDR declined on Hang Seng Tech weakness and e-commerce margin concerns.

• $Tencent HK SDR 10to1(HTCD.SI)$ -3.23% — The internet giant's SDR fell on gaming and fintech valuation compression.

• $HSBC HK SDR 5to1(HSHD.SI)$ -5.25% — The UK banking giant's SDR slumped on Asian lending margin pressure and rotation out of globally exposed financials.

• $TLKM ID SDR 1to5(ITKD.SI)$ -6.98% — The Indonesian telecom giant's SDR collapsed on regional emerging-market outflows and thin-liquidity volatility.

• $Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1(HXXD.SI)$ -7.08% — The consumer electronics and EV player's SDR was the week's worst performer, tumbling on EV delivery-margin compression and China EV supply-chain profit-taking.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

Australian Market – XJO edges up 0.2% as retail and insurance offset resource weakness

The $S&P/ASX 200(XJO.AU)$ gained 0.2% to 8,682.1 over the week, as strength in retail, insurance, and gaming offset modest declines in energy, property, and iron ore miners. The index held above the 8,650 level amid mixed sector rotation.

Industry leaders: Electronic Equipment & Instruments (+25.54%) led on AI-driven precision manufacturing demand and testing equipment orders. IT Consulting & Other Services (+19.71%) surged on enterprise digitalisation and cloud migration tailwinds. Paper Products (+11.11%) advanced on packaging demand recovery and e-commerce logistics growth.

10 Popular Stocks:

• $QBE INSURANCE GROUP LTD(QBE.AU)$ +3.84% — The global insurer advanced on resilient premium pricing and improving combined ratio trends across its international operations.

• $WESFARMERS LTD(WES.AU)$ +3.55% — The diversified retail conglomerate climbed on Bunnings and Kmart trading momentum, with investors favoring consumer staples exposure amid market uncertainty.

• $ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LTD(ALL.AU)$ +2.33% — The gaming and slot-machine leader rose on resilient casino capex and digital gaming revenue growth.

• $Macquarie(MQG.AU)$ +2.55% — The investment bank and asset manager advanced on commodity-trading profits and green-infrastructure asset realisations.

• $Telos Corporation(TLS)$ +1.05% — The telecom incumbent edged up on defensive yield positioning and mobile subscriber growth.

• $BHP GROUP LTD(BHP.AU)$ +0.81% — The diversified miner rose modestly on copper price resilience, though iron ore headwinds capped gains.

• $FORTESCUE LTD(FMG.AU)$ -1.1% — The pure-play iron ore miner drifted lower on China steel-demand concerns and 62% Fe price pressure.

• $WOODSIDE ENERGY GROUP LTD(WDS.AU)$ -1.51% — The oil & gas producer declined alongside Brent crude weakness and LNG spot pricing softness.

• $ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(ANZ.AU)$ -1.24% — The Melbourne-based lender slipped on institutional-banking margin compression and commercial-property exposure worries.

• $GOODMAN GROUP(GMG.AU)$ -1.78% — The industrial property giant pulled back on valuation concerns after a strong year-to-date run, despite underlying data-centre demand remaining robust.

Performance is subjected to market volatility

The Week Ahead: Oct 5-9

1. Macro Events in Focus

Monday, Oct 6

• ISM Services PMI (September) — The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers' Index. With the services sector dominating U.S. economic activity, this print will offer a fresh read on business activity, new orders, and employment trends outside of manufacturing. Markets will watch the employment sub-index closely for any post-jobs-report confirmation of labor market cooling.

Wednesday, Oct 8

• FOMC Meeting Minutes — The Federal Reserve releases the detailed minutes from its mid-September monetary policy meeting. Following the shockingly weak September payrolls print, investors will parse every word for clues on how policymakers viewed the labor market slowdown before the jobs data hit, and whether the Fed's internal debate has shifted further toward dovishness.

Friday, Oct 10

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (October, Preliminary) — The first read on October consumer sentiment arrives amid a volatile backdrop: softening jobs data, sticky inflation expectations, and a recent spike in mortgage rates to 7.28%. The inflation expectations component (1-year and 5-year) remains particularly critical for Fed watchers.

2. Earnings in Focus

Tuesday, Oct 7

• $Constellation(STZ)$ — Beer portfolio momentum (Modelo, Corona) and wine/spirits segment margins in focus. Tariff and input cost commentary will be key.

• $Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc.(LW)$ — The frozen potato giant faces demand and margin pressure from quick-service restaurant traffic trends and agricultural input costs.

• $RPM International Inc(RPM)$ — Specialty coatings and sealants bellwether; housing and industrial end-market demand trends under scrutiny.

Wednesday, Oct 8

• $APPLIED DIGITAL CORP(APLD)$ — AI infrastructure and datacenter buildout progress; power and land development updates.

• $Levi Strauss & Co(LEVI)$ — Global denim demand, DTC channel growth, and China/Asia consumer recovery trajectory in focus.

Thursday, Oct 9

• $Pepsi(PEP)$ — A key consumer staples tell. Volume trends in snacks (Frito-Lay) and beverages, pricing elasticity, and emerging market performance will drive the narrative. Guidance commentary amid a slowing consumer backdrop is critical.