To The Moon

There were some problems in the analysis of crude oil last week. Although there is nothing wrong with the answer that oil prices are at a new high,However, the performance of market risk appetite is obviously slapping in the face. In the absence of obvious bad news and relatively stable oil prices, S&P (US stocks) went out of the broken market. This means that the wind direction of the whole market has changed. Admit your mistakes and leave the market as soon as possible or look for turning opportunities, which is what real traders should consider.

The performance of S&P (US stock market) last week was obviously destructive. First, the market fell through the low of 4493 built by Omicron at that time.At the same time, on the monthly graph, we have already seen the pattern of short swallowing. Although there is still a week to take up the line, and the daily line is also facing the opportunity to rebound, the overall market that has no brain to wait for the slow bull to rise is over.

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​As to the reasons for the decline,The main view of the market is the Fed's problem, especially with the FOMC next week, and the recession argument begins to pervade. But as we said before, the market communication of tightening and raising interest rates has been very sufficient. If it is really because of fear of raising interest rates, it should be more panicked in early January.

Surrounding other markets, although the performance of the bond market matches, the yield of US bonds has been closely linked with the concept of raising interest rates very early, which is not a matter of this week or two. In the foreign exchange market, non-US currencies are under pressure, but the correlation with risk-off status and interest margin of US stocks is not significant. From this, we guess that there must be some prophets in the United States who got the news from other angles, so they chose to run without difference, which eventually triggered the price collapse.

Back in the market itself, with the fall of 4493, S&P's direction can't be much, if not completely empty. In fact, the difference between the high point of 4817 and the 4900 we predicted a few months ago is about 2%, and the cost performance has already not supported the boarding of new leeks. At present, the support of 4363 matches the time period of the Japanese line level, and there is a high probability that US stocks will have a revised rebound this week. At altitude, the vicinity of 4600 will be the first challenge, followed by the suppression of 4740. If we compare the performance of oil prices, we may make a second surge in the next month and build a more secure top structure. Therefore, if you are stunned by a sharp fall and do not get out as soon as possible, you must grasp the opportunity of rebound this time.

Is there any short selling? The current price obviously does not have a good cost performance. It is suggested to try possible short opportunities near the two suppression resistances mentioned above. If you can reach above 4700, there is not much room for stop loss at the highest point. If the market falls, there will be huge profit space.

Risk assets did not perform well, and last week's safe-haven assets as a whole were only so so. Gold and silver have both been revised from previous gains, and the dollar is half-dead. This also implies that the decline of US stocks is unlikely to happen overnight.

Generally speaking, before the Lunar New Year, the long bull trend of US stocks has loosened, and BTFD's strategy can no longer be used without brains. After the short-term sharp drop, the market will start to revise and rebound, and investors can take advantage of this opportunity to choose to leave the market. More aggressive speculators can wait for opportunities to look for the possibility of short selling.

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