To The Moon

The new earnings season is about to kick off next week. I learned the myth of the last earnings season. Are you ready to make a move this earnings season? For example, in the last earnings season, Facebook and Naifei fell sharply. Today, let's share some personal strategies for the latest earnings season, don't worry about these strategies will fail.

This article is only a record of personal investment thinking and does not constitute any investment advice. The patterns and positions are different and are for reference only.

There is a previous post, you can check it out if you are interested

Is the financial report game really a bet on big and small?

1. Target selection, harvest other people's expectations for the earnings season (harvest gambling dogs).

Review the stocks that rose and fell in the last earnings season, and ambushed in. The implied volatility of options on these stocks will reach a very terrifying price the day before the earnings report, such as the snap last earnings season, which once reached 300%+. The most typical earnings report season starting next week is TSMC, but this stock has been trending very weakly recently. At the same time, the last earnings season did not have a particularly bright performance, so I won’t consider it, but next week’s Naifei (4.19) , and fb (4.27) at the end of the month, you must pay more attention. Not surprisingly, their ivs will skyrocket, because the volatility of the last earnings season was too huge, and this earnings season will definitely have a lot of money to ambush, For example, I have already squatted on the doubling trend of a put option in Naifei. Of course, because of the double opening, the call has been discounted.

Many people may say that this kind of strategy is bad and how to play it. In fact, don’t worry, there is a big gap between learning and implementing a strategy. For example, when I write an article here, I don’t worry about everyone knowing that I will not. On the contrary, when everyone has stronger expectations for a certain strategy, it may have better results, and it takes a lot of thinking to change an idea from thinking to writing, and in the process of writing Some problems may be found, and the strategy can be continuously improved. It is shallow on paper, and it is absolutely necessary to practice this matter. Practice is the foundation.

For the expected harvest, there are two ways to play. Entering the market one week or half a month in advance. At this time, many people will talk about the problem of time loss. In fact, if the implied volatility can rise sharply, the loss of time value can be ignored. The other is to enter the market at the opening of the day before the financial report, and leave before the close. This method is the most reliable.

2. Selection of individual stock trends + market trends

At the beginning, I shared a post about the financial report game. If the market is stable, then the financial report will have the greatest impact on options. If the market is unstable, the impact of the two will be superimposed. , then buying cross-market options can be very hurtful. But if the earnings report is good and the market soars, then more profits can be made. Therefore, when choosing the option direction, it is necessary to make a double judgment on the trend of the individual stock itself and the trend of the broader market, and then only the fundamental judgment.

3. Strategy selection

straddle strategy

From the perspective of success rate, the success rate of straddle-type double-opening is still very considerable, especially when choosing some popular targets, closing the position and leaving before the financial report comes out, avoiding the uncertainty of the financial report. There are two options for cross-market, one is to choose call and put with the same strike price on the same expiry date, and the other is to choose call and put with different strike prices on the same expiry date. The first one is simple, but the cost High, the second is relatively troublesome, and needs to judge the fluctuation of individual stocks, but choosing different exercise prices, the cost will be lower, the choice of exercise price is a combination of technology and experience, and I will share it later.

put strategy

This strategy may not have the highest winning rate, but as long as it is done right once, the rate of return will be very high.

At present, the trend of the broader market is under the dual possibility of breaking the position and the second bottom. The weekly line of the Nasdaq was directly suppressed after rebounding to the 20-week line.

And it can be seen from the figure that the annual line (the 250-day line in the picture) is very standard for the suppression of the Nasdaq, which has been done three times. From the daily point of view, the Nasdaq has fallen below the middle Bollinger band. If there is no effective support for this, it may be directed to the lower rail to find the bottom.

Therefore, before the market improves, the decline is still the main theme of many stocks, especially in this market, which is mainly dominated by big technology, and growth stocks are not doing well. If the financial report is not optimistic, it is easy to continue to decline. Therefore, this earnings season, in addition to the straddle strategy, buying put should be one of the main strategies.

Spread strategy

Before the financial report comes out, options will be very expensive, and opening a spread will greatly reduce the cost, but the profit range will also be limited. If you have low expectations for the volatility of the financial report, it is also good to use this strategy. However, with the rise of iv, for the spread It is not very friendly. It is recommended not to open the spread at the same time. You can buy first and then sell, and the cost will be lower. Of course, if you don’t ask for a spread at the same time, for example, you originally wanted to buy a bear market spread, but only bought a put, if the stock price rose sharply, you would lose more. However, if the stock price does not fluctuate much, but the iv rises sharply, buy the put first, and then turn the single leg into a portfolio when the earnings report is about to be released, the cost will be lower.

Spread + Straddle

Think of the results of the spread strategy and the straddle strategy, and open a bull market spread and a bear market spread, which is suitable for stock prices that will fluctuate greatly, but do not know the direction of the market. At the

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$