To The Moon

the turnover of A-share cities was 922.979 billion, and the market showed a general decline. All three major indexes closed lower, among which real estate, trade, film and television animation, animal husbandry and fishery and non-bank finance were among the top losers.​

​In addition to the impact of epidemic factors on market confidence, the Eagle has not stopped recently, preparing to sell weapons and speculating that the old woman is going to visit. The eagle, who tasted the return of European funds, tried to point the war from Europe to Asia-Pacific.​

​As shown in the above figure, as the leading index PMI of the economy, the manufacturing PMI index in March was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month and lower than the critical value, which means that both domestic and foreign demand showed signs of weakening. At the same time, the PMI index of non-manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from last month, which also revealed signs of expected weakening.​

At this critical moment, the State Council stated that "...... deploy and use monetary policy tools in a timely manner to support the development of the real economy more effectively..." This sentence actually means in disguise,In April, the window for the central government to lower the RRR or cut interest rates is still open.​

​As shown in the above figure, the A50 index pulled up after the low point of 13157 in the right shoulder test before, and then the price launched a wave of counterattack as scheduled. Since the holiday, it has fallen back to the 20-day moving average of 13630 to find support. In view of the potential benefits expected from the policy level, it is possible to try to enter more again when it falls back to the supporting area, with the goal pointing to the level of 14500.

Of course, the Federal Reserve, which is completely opposite to the central mother, is releasing a strong hawkish signal overnight:​

​First of all,The minutes of the overnight meeting are much simpler than those in February, with only 12 pages, and the minutes in February have 20 pages. As the saying goes, the fewer words, the bigger things. The minutes of this meeting basically set the tone for the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve.

Secondly,There are some signals revealed in the minutes of the meeting: if there is no conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it would have been 50 basis points in March; The probability of adding 50 basis points in May soared to 82% after the minutes were published; At present, the overall interest rate should return to neutral interest rate, that is, 2.25%-2.5%; The plan of scale reduction is that the national debt is 60 billion +35 billion MBS, which is expected to be adjusted to the upper limit in three months or more. Compared with the monthly scale reduction of 50 billion in 2017-19, it is really faster and more hawkish. That is to say, the minutes of the whole meeting are relatively negative for gold prices, but also for US stocks.

FinallyThe performance of the whole financial market was relatively calm. On the one hand, while the expectation of raising interest rates this year is soaring, the expectation of cutting interest rates next year is also soaring; On the other hand, it is related to the expected management of the Federal Reserve. For example, Brad, a hawk before, talked about raising interest rates by 50 basis points several times during the year. For example, I asked you if you were afraid in the previous "0406: Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting or Amplifying Fluctuations". ! "Talking about the hawkish signal that Brainerd, who was nominated as the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, will start to shrink his watch as soon as May.

​

​To sum up,Judging from the performance of US stocks, it fell first and then rose, and the decline converged, indicating that the hawkish meeting minutes did not deviate from the market's expectations; Judging from the performance of US debt, the yield of each term is further far away from upside down, indicating that the market has digested the expectation of shrinking debt; Bitcoin fell, the US dollar pushed to a recent high, gold prices showed a slight decline, and oil prices fell sharplyThe minutes of the meeting have something to do with it. In the short term, it is more due to the release of strategic oil reserves. However, in the medium and long term, such radical plans to raise interest rates and reduce the table may lead to a real recession in the future. Such a scenario is the real bad news for oil prices.

If the Fed's position turns hawkish, one of the reasons is inflation in the United States. Now, with the constant conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation in Europe has begun to catch up with that in the United States.

According to data released by Eurostat,In March, the CPI of the euro zone rose by 7.5% year-on-year, continuing to set a record, which was much higher than the median forecast of economists only increasing by 6.7%, and also higher than the previous value of 5.8% in February.This is the fifth consecutive month that the inflation rate in the euro zone has reached a record high.​

​Among the overall 7.5% increase, food prices rose by 5%, electronics prices rose by 3.4% and labor services prices rose by 2.7%.The point came, with energy prices such as gasoline and natural gas soaring by 44.7%.

Under such circumstances, the EU is also preparing to impose an oil embargo on Russia? Coal and gas sanctions? !

Who is punishing who? Is it the United States that is sanctioning Europe? !

$NQmain(NQmain)$    $HSImain(HSImain)$   $HTImain(HTImain)$   $CNmain(CNmain)$   $ESmain(ESmain)$