许亚鑫

泓泽资本创始合伙人及首席策略师,匠鑫学院院长,新华社特约评论员

    • 许亚鑫·04-29许亚鑫

      GDP Report Shows the U.S. Economy Shrank! And the second low point of A50 is confirmed!

      At 20:30 on April 28th, Beijing time, the GDP data of the United States in the first quarter of 2022 was released, which is also the first economic transcript since the Federal Reserve started balance reduction last year (it ended debt reduction and raised interest rates in March this year). Before the data was released, the expectations given by major banks and financial institutions were as follows: UBS:-0.2%; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +0.5%; Dominion Securities: +0.5%; Deutsche Bank: +0.6%; Wells Fargo: +0.6%; Deka Bank: +0.7%; Industrial Bank: +0.7%; Bank of America: +0.8%; Citibank: +0.8%; Standard Chartered Bank: +0.8%; UOB: +0.8%; Fannie Mae: +0.9%; Faba Bank: +1.0%; Ruijie Finance: +1.0%; HSBC: +1.0%; Oxford Economics: +1.0%; Moody's analysis: +1.1%; JPMorgan Chase: +1.1%; Kaitou Macro: +1.2%; Netherlands International: +1.3%; Morgan Stanley: +1.4%; Scotiabank: +1.4%; Credit Suisse: +1.5%; Goldman Sachs Group: +1.5%; Westpac: +1.5%; Nomura Securities: +1.6%; Yuxin Bank: +1.6%; Barclays: 1.7%; Mizuho Securities: +2.5%; Reuters forecast: +1.10% Looking down, UBS is the most pessimistic at 0.2%, Mizuho is the most optimistic at 2.5%, and the median market forecast is around 1%. What do you guess about the data? ​​ ​It's surprise! US real GDP fell at an initial annual rate of 1.4% in the first quarter, worse than the most pessimistic UBS forecast! In another data, the real personal consumption expenditure increased by 2.7% in the first quarter, which was also lower than the expected 3.5% and slightly higher than the previous value of 2.5%. We all know that although GDP data is a lagging indicator, the signal revealed here is that medicine (stimulus) can't stop,!In the fourth quarter of last year, the GDP growth rate of the United States reached 6.9%. ​​ ​Therefore, next, the trading logic of the market will probably move towards the "fourth stage" as we expect. What do you mean? Now we are in the third stage, that is, in the federal funds futures market, the year-end interest rate forecast has soared to 2.5-2.75%, and the total number of expected interest rate increases has reached 10 times (each time by 25 basis points). ​​ ​In other words, it is equivalent to the market's expectation that the Fed will need to raise interest rates by 50 basis points four times and 25 basis points two times at the six interest rate meetings this year. Do you think the market's expectation is a bit excessive? Especially when the Fed raised interest rates by only 25 basis points in March, the GDP data in the first quarter has already dropped by 1.4%, so who will give the Fed the courage to increase 50 basis points at each of the next four interest rate meetings? Obviously, the fourth stage that the market will enter next is the stage when the market speculates on the Fed's interest rate hike and balance reduction.Tonight's GDP is just a letterNo, the real final decision actually needs to wait for the confirmation of the results of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on May 4th! Of course, the cold GDP data of the United States in the first quarter will actually add a little more chance for gold and silver to change successfully in the change window on the 29th. Please pay attention to the PCE data of the United States in March to be released at 20:30 Beijing time tomorrow. ​​ ​ ​Finally, let's track the trend of A50 index. As shown in the above figure, A50 fell back again this week to test the support of 12800 line, and stabilized, echoing the previous low of 12294, which is equivalent to forming the second low. It is expected that the short-term shock will continue. After the Fed interest rate meeting landed on May 4 and the epidemic situation in Shanghai and Beijing became clear in mid-May, the market is expected to set off an upward trend. $MSCI China A50 Index - main 2205(MCAmain)$   $China A50 Index - main 2205(CNmain)$   $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2206(NQmain)$  $Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2206(CLmain)$
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      GDP Report Shows the U.S. Economy Shrank! And the second low point of A50 is confirmed!
    • 许亚鑫·04-14许亚鑫

      The window of RRR cut is approaching,A50 index rebound after hitting the bottom

      Recently, due to the economic and financial data in March showing that the downward pressure on the economy is increasing, combined with the proposal of "timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR cut" by the State Council, the market has a high voice for the central bank to cut RRR or interest rates, and even some voices shout that April 15th is the nearest policy observation window.​ ​No matter from the necessity of policy implementation or the space of policy manoeuvre, it is feasible to cut the RRR or interest rate in the near future. Although there is a view that China's economy is facing a complicated situation of preventing imported inflation from outside and increasing downward pressure from inside, which has little effect on the use of monetary policy aggregate tools, China is facing demand contraction and supply shock, and the problem of expected weakening is particularly prominent when the epidemic is spreading in many places. Yesterday, the turnover of A-share cities was 873.441 billion, and the trend of double dip of Shanghai Composite Index's daily level continued, while the second dip of Shenzhen Component Index and GEM was nearing completion, and then it might rebound at any time.​ ​On the whole, only coal mining, warehousing and logistics, gold, nonferrous metals, trade, machinery, mining and petroleum and petrochemicals are booming, and the other 60 industries are adjusted across the board, and the short-term market still shows a very weak trend. Just like I said in the previous article "In April, the window of the central mother's RRR cut or interest rate cut was still open, and A50 fell back to find support"As mentioned, the A50 index fell back to the 20-day moving average of 13630 to find support and stabilize, and now stands above the short-term moving average system again, which is expected to launch an upward trend. Next pay attention to the resistance near 14100 above. Once refreshed here, it may cause profit selling to fall back. ​ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2206(NQmain)$    $E-mini Dow Jones - main 2203(YMmain)$   $Gold - main 2206(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2205(CLmain)$  $China A50 Index - main 2204(CNmain)$
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      The window of RRR cut is approaching,A50 index rebound after hitting the bottom
    • 许亚鑫·04-08许亚鑫

      China's RRR cut is still "on the table",A50 fell back to find support

      the turnover of A-share cities was 922.979 billion, and the market showed a general decline. All three major indexes closed lower, among which real estate, trade, film and television animation, animal husbandry and fishery and non-bank finance were among the top losers.​ ​In addition to the impact of epidemic factors on market confidence, the Eagle has not stopped recently, preparing to sell weapons and speculating that the old woman is going to visit. The eagle, who tasted the return of European funds, tried to point the war from Europe to Asia-Pacific.​ ​As shown in the above figure, as the leading index PMI of the economy, the manufacturing PMI index in March was 49.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from last month and lower than the critical value, which means that both domestic and foreign demand showed signs of weakening. At the same time, the PMI index of non-manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries was 48.4%, down 3.2 percentage points from last month, which also revealed signs of expected weakening.​ At this critical moment, the State Council stated that "...... deploy and use monetary policy tools in a timely manner to support the development of the real economy more effectively..." This sentence actually means in disguise,In April, the window for the central government to lower the RRR or cut interest rates is still open.​ ​As shown in the above figure, the A50 index pulled up after the low point of 13157 in the right shoulder test before, and then the price launched a wave of counterattack as scheduled. Since the holiday, it has fallen back to the 20-day moving average of 13630 to find support. In view of the potential benefits expected from the policy level, it is possible to try to enter more again when it falls back to the supporting area, with the goal pointing to the level of 14500. Of course, the Federal Reserve, which is completely opposite to the central mother, is releasing a strong hawkish signal overnight:​ ​First of all,The minutes of the overnight meeting are much simpler than those in February, with only 12 pages, and the minutes in February have 20 pages. As the saying goes, the fewer words, the bigger things. The minutes of this meeting basically set the tone for the future monetary policy path of the Federal Reserve. Secondly,There are some signals revealed in the minutes of the meeting: if there is no conflict between Russia and Ukraine, it would have been 50 basis points in March; The probability of adding 50 basis points in May soared to 82% after the minutes were published; At present, the overall interest rate should return to neutral interest rate, that is, 2.25%-2.5%; The plan of scale reduction is that the national debt is 60 billion +35 billion MBS, which is expected to be adjusted to the upper limit in three months or more. Compared with the monthly scale reduction of 50 billion in 2017-19, it is really faster and more hawkish. That is to say, the minutes of the whole meeting are relatively negative for gold prices, but also for US stocks. FinallyThe performance of the whole financial market was relatively calm. On the one hand, while the expectation of raising interest rates this year is soaring, the expectation of cutting interest rates next year is also soaring; On the other hand, it is related to the expected management of the Federal Reserve. For example, Brad, a hawk before, talked about raising interest rates by 50 basis points several times during the year. For example, I asked you if you were afraid in the previous "0406: Minutes of the Federal Reserve Meeting or Amplifying Fluctuations". ! "Talking about the hawkish signal that Brainerd, who was nominated as the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, will start to shrink his watch as soon as May. ​ ​To sum up,Judging from the performance of US stocks, it fell first and then rose, and the decline converged, indicating that the hawkish meeting minutes did not deviate from the market's expectations; Judging from the performance of US debt, the yield of each term is further far away from upside down, indicating that the market has digested the expectation of shrinking debt; Bitcoin fell, the US dollar pushed to a recent high, gold prices showed a slight decline, and oil prices fell sharplyThe minutes of the meeting have something to do with it. In the short term, it is more due to the release of strategic oil reserves. However, in the medium and long term, such radical plans to raise interest rates and reduce the table may lead to a real recession in the future. Such a scenario is the real bad news for oil prices. If the Fed's position turns hawkish, one of the reasons is inflation in the United States. Now, with the constant conflict between Russia and Ukraine, inflation in Europe has begun to catch up with that in the United States. According to data released by Eurostat,In March, the CPI of the euro zone rose by 7.5% year-on-year, continuing to set a record, which was much higher than the median forecast of economists only increasing by 6.7%, and also higher than the previous value of 5.8% in February.This is the fifth consecutive month that the inflation rate in the euro zone has reached a record high.​ ​Among the overall 7.5% increase, food prices rose by 5%, electronics prices rose by 3.4% and labor services prices rose by 2.7%.The point came, with energy prices such as gasoline and natural gas soaring by 44.7%. Under such circumstances, the EU is also preparing to impose an oil embargo on Russia? Coal and gas sanctions? ! Who is punishing who? Is it the United States that is sanctioning Europe? ! $NQmain(NQmain)$    $HSImain(HSImain)$   $HTImain(HTImain)$   $CNmain(CNmain)$   $ESmain(ESmain)$
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      China's RRR cut is still "on the table",A50 fell back to find support
    • 许亚鑫·03-23许亚鑫

      The Federal Reserve released a big move to raise interest rates by 50 basis points。

      This week,There are many Fed executives who will comment soonIncluding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell (Monday and Wednesday), FOMC Permanent Voting Committee, New York Fed Chairman Williams (Tuesday), 2022 FOMC Voting Committee, Cleveland Fed Chairman Meister (Wednesday), 2022 FOMC Voting Committee, St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad and Federal Reserve Governor Waller (Thursday and Friday). In the FOMC statement of the Federal Reserve last week, the decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points was passed by an eight-to-one vote. Brad, who voted against it, felt that the interest rate should be raised by 50 basis points, and it was far from enough to increase 50 basis points once this year. He felt that,At least five 50 basis point rate hikes are needed in 2022. ​​ ​ Fortunately for financial markets, the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, his name is Powell, and his current view is that adding 50 basis points once this year is enough. Unfortunately, for financial markets, Powell is the current chairman of the Federal Reserve, not Yellen and Bernanke. In the Q&A session after Powell delivered his keynote speech overnight, the host threw out such a question- "Under what circumstances will the Fed not raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May?" Powell said calmly. "Is there anything that will stop us? No." ​​ ​ The trend of US stocks fell back, and the overnight gold price failed to further expand its increase at the level of 1937, but stopped. According to the price of interest rate futures market,The chances of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May rose to 60%, compared with 52% before Powell's speech.At present, the market is indeed pricing the remaining six interest rate meetings this year, including one interest rate hike of 50 basis points. From the data of the past two decades, the Federal Reserve has never had a precedent of raising interest rates by 50 basis points, usually adding 25. However, what is different from what ordinary people understand is that,The Fed has entered the cycle of raising interest rates, which is not necessarily "bad" for the long-term trend of gold prices. ​​ ​ As shown in the above figure,The black line represents the interest rate level of the Federal Reserve, and the yellow line represents the gold price.The two closest interest rate hike cycles of the Federal Reserve are 2015-2018 and 2004-2006 respectively. In these two interest rate hike cycles, the focus of gold price is rising instead of going down, especially in 2004-06. If we enlarge the time period and compare the interest rate hike paths of the Federal Reserve in the past 40 years, it is very likely that the interest rate hike path in 2022-2023 (virtual red line) will be closer to the 2004-06 round (white line) than the 15-18 round (green line). ​​ ​ However, we must think clearly that it is not the rise and fall of gold prices caused by the Fed's interest rate increase (interest rate cut), but we have to think about why the Fed is so anxious to raise interest rates. Whatever it is,At least the apparent reason is inflation. In fact, this also explains why after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell expressed the idea of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in May, the market volatility did not obviously enlarge, but showed a trend of convergence recently. I remind everyone in class. "When the volatility is small, the small level of resistance is resistance, and the large level of resistance is resistance. When the volatility is large, a small level of resistance is not resistance, but a large level of resistance is resistance. Knowing how to look at the resistance of big and small levels is just entering the trading door. If you want to do well, you have to understand that when the volatility is small, there are small ways to play, and when the volatility is large, there can be big routines. There is nothing wrong with the strategy itself, but if the users don't know how to choose the timing and don't know how to advance and retreat, they just carve boats and seek swords and fish from trees, and eventually they can only become leeks." Taking "touching the top crude oil", which everyone has been asking on the message board recently, as an example, let me talk about logic: Behind inflation, there is a big reason due to the supply caused by the epidemicAnother reason for the disorder of response chain is the haze of energy crisis brought about by Russia-Ukraine conflict. If the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not resolved, there is a risk that Europe will impulsively sanction polar bears, which means that WTI crude oil price at US $130/barrel may not be the top of this round of rally. At present, the price difference between WTI crude oil price futures and spot has soared to a new high in the past 10 years. For example, the difference between one-month futures price and three-month futures price is close to 12 USD/barrel, which is very unfavorable to the increase of crude oil inventories. Statistics show that in the past short month, short sellers sold 1 billion barrels of crude oil futures, setting a record high and continuing to occupy the market highland. ​​ ​ Is this situation easy for everyone to think of,The negative oil price turmoil on April 20, 2020? It's just that the present situation is completely reversed from the original one. This is why in the past few months, I refused to predict where the top of WTI crude oil price will go, and strongly suggested that everyone should not touch the top indiscriminately, even if they are really disobedient, they should go out in time. Because I have experienced negative oil prices, I once recognized the cowardice because "the rich meet the desperate". I didn't get killed by the market not because I was lucky, but because I knew how to advance and retreat. If you can't learn how to fear the market yourself, the market will teach you to be a good person one day. Don't come for help at that time, because no one can save a man who died on purpose. Why do you have to die? Especially these two days, everyone saw the news of China Eastern Airlines with a heavy heart. Don't you think it is precious to live well and cherish every day when you are happy? ! I can't help but think of the golden sentences I have learned- We never know what will happen tomorrow, so please cherish every whim. Those who miss will pick up their mobile phones and dial the phone, those who want to see will leave, those who like will summon up courage to confess boldly, and those who want to go will take the time to start immediately. If you always think about going when this is finished, or when you must go, you may never see it again. The past can't be undone, and the future can't be grasped. Cherish the present, there are too many uncontrollable regrets in life. From this moment on, don't take the initiative to create regrets, and don't leave regrets for today and in the future. I think your Chinese reading level is good, and the central idea I want to express is clear, but it is very helpless that some people will ignore all this and then taste it- If you want to open a warehouse, you must seize Man Cang Soha, cherish the present and leave no regrets! $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2206(NQmain)$   $YMmain(YMmain)$   $Gold - main 2204(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2205(CLmain)$
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      The Federal Reserve released a big move to raise interest rates by 50 basis points。
    • 许亚鑫·03-03许亚鑫

      What did Biden say last night? what to expect from gold and silver

      Just today, US President Biden delivered his first State of the Union address since taking office in Congress. On Russia and Ukraine, Biden announced,The United States will join allies to ban Russian flights from entering US airspaceRussian President Vladimir Putin's yacht, luxury apartment and private jet were seized together with European allies.​​ ​The words sound just fell, and the applause thundered. It's just that this picture has that flavor in any way,Is it possible that I am the only one who feels a little bit like listening to politics? On the issue of inflation in the United States,Biden said that he would use all possible means to protect American enterprises and consumers from the impact of sanctions against Russia. He said controlling prices is the top priority, urging lower prices for electric vehicles and the United States to release 30 million barrels of strategic oil reserves.​​ Unfortunately, it is useless to release strategic oil reserves. WTI crude oil price broke through the mark of USD 110/barrel in intraday trading today, setting a new high of USD 112.41/barrel. Against the background of the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine and the failure of the Iranian nuclear agreement, these reserves can only be said to be a drop in the bucket. Now understand why Xu Dao has been pulling you not to touch the top of crude oil?The ultimate peak of oil price in this round is likely to exceed the expectations of most institutions. The last round of $147/barrel is already incredible, and this round will be even more incredible. Although historical statistics will tell us that oil prices will eventually collapse after the war, you are not on the list of those who sincerely hope to explode in the process of pulling up. About the epidemic situationBiden said that with the decrease of novel coronavirus pneumonia cases, life in the United States is returning to normal, and will continue to fight against similar diseases in COVID-19. He will soon ask Congress for more funds related to the epidemic. He promised Americans that Pfizer's COVID-19 treatment drugs would be available to anyone in any pharmacy. ​​ ​If there were no epidemic, inflation would not be so high today; If inflation is not off the charts, the United States and Britain will not try their best to arch fire in Europe; If NATO doesn't fire, polar bears won't beat Ukraine; If the Russian-Ukrainian war did not break out, your account would not be injured; In the final analysis, it is because of the epidemic, whether you are worried about precious metals or crude oil, Novel Coronavirus will take the blame for your warehouse explosion. About the spending billIn 1979, Biden repackaged his name from "Build Back Better" to "Building a Better America." It includes most of the old plan, but the content has not changed much, just conveying more information about reducing the deficit and reducing inflation. Biden said that infrastructure reform will put the United States on the road to win economic competition in the 21st century. Well, BBB has become BBA. When we made the precious metal trading plan in December, we expected the 3B bill to promote a wave of market. Who would have expected that we would thank Putin instead of Biden in the end. It's really unpredictable. On the Fed side,Biden urged Republicans to get his Fed candidate through the Senate. Biden has called on Senate Republicans to stop blocking a vote on five of his Fed nominees.​​ ​More than half a month ago, the focus of market debate was whether the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in March. Now the debate has become whether to raise interest rates by 25 basis points or not at all in March. Obviously,At present, the market does not focus on the Federal Reserve, but is still concerned about the situation in Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, as I said earlier, "The development of history always has a similar rhythm. We talk about the market from the Ukrainian-Russian WarEvolution"As it was said,When history comes with the same rhyme, did you seize the opportunity? Is this position where I entered the arena the 1945-50 interval I talked to you about in the hidden password in last Friday's article? I told you in advance last Friday, is it a horse's gun? !​​ ​Today, the high point of gold European plate fell at $1947.96/oz, and I opened my position at $1947.53/oz.​​ ​ Don't ask me why I know where it is. When I am in good condition, I just know. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $Gold - main 2204(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2204(CLmain)$   $Natural Gas - main 2204(NGmain)$   
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      What did Biden say last night? what to expect from gold and silver
    • 许亚鑫·01-19许亚鑫

      China's central bank cut interest rates, and the A share market generally rose!

      I‘ve said in the previous article "0112: Good and Potential Good, the future can be expected! "As I mentioned to you, social financing data is a short-term positive, while narrowing the scissors difference between PPI and CPI is a potential positive.Because the inflation space is suppressed, the superimposed economic growth may stall, which will inevitably lead to the central government's move again. According to the media survey, most investors think that the overall interest rate cut this year may be in February. The number of people who expect to cut interest rates before March reaches 90%, and less than 1/3 expect to cut interest rates in January. ​​ ​Although the market is generally expected to be February-March, the central mother finally made a quick move! From the perspective of quantity500 billion MLF expired, but 700 billion was operated and 200 billion was released; 10 billion reverse repurchase expired, but it operated 100 billion and released 90 billion, that is, a net investment of 290 billion; Ad valorem perspectiveThe MLF interest rate was 2.85%, compared with 2.95% before, and the interest rate was cut by 10 basis points; The winning bid rate of 7-day reverse repurchase was 2.10%, compared with 2.20% before, which was cut by 10 basis points. So far, LPR, MLF and reverse repurchase rates have all been lowered. Therefore, do you understand my previous "0114: He said he would raise interest rates five times? Do you dare to believe it? ! "The hidden password will say: ...... The Shanghai Stock Exchange seems to have broken the daily line, but in fact it has been transferred to the end of this round... The tightening of the external environment has intensified the selling pressure of Big A. Stabilize and don't panic, Leon Lai Ming will come soon...... ​​ You see, after a weekend, Yang Ma came with Leon Lai Ming. Not only is it coming, but if there is no accident,The latest quotation of the new round of 5-year LPR on January 20 will also be loweredThis will involve everyone's mortgage, not only the interest on repaying the loan will be reduced, but more importantly, it is a policy signal released by the central mother,The boost to market sentiment is much higher than the amount of funds that can really be released. Affected by this, the turnover of the two cities in Da A today was 1,119.6 billion, and the market showed a general rising state. The ratio of the number of individual stocks rising and falling reached 3,000 to 1,092, which was boosted by the National Development and Reform Commission's "vigorously promoting the healthy development of China's digital economy". Concepts such as digital economy, virtual digital person, meta-universe, radio and television, and digital cash set off a daily limit of individual stocks. ​​ ​The only fly in the ointment is that in Nanshan South, ignoring the rise of A-share mothers, the Hang Seng Index fell, the technology index fell even more, and the state-owned enterprise index smashed. In the evening, the US stock father was closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Day, which seemed to be a little distracted. ​​ ​In fact, it doesn't have to be like this. Although the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States fell by 1.9% in December last week, Industrial output fell by 0.1% in December, and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index of 68.8 in January was still not as expected. However, the yield of US 10-year Treasury bonds is close to 1.8%, which means that the Federal Reserve has fully priced the interest rate hike twice, and the crossbow of the US dollar index is still broken. Is there anything to worry about? ​Don't even worry about the epidemic. Who said that overseas countries adopted the strategy of lying flat? It's nonsense! Clearly, people also adopt the zero clearing policy, okay? ! The only difference is that the negative clearing policy is implemented overseas, while the positive clearing policy is implemented in China. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $China A50 Index - main 2201(CNmain)$   $YMmain(YMmain)$
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      China's central bank cut interest rates, and the A share market generally rose!
    • 许亚鑫·01-07许亚鑫

      The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!

      The Federal Reserve released the minutes of its December meeting, which containedNot only does it imply that the time node for the first interest rate hike in 2022 may be advanced, but even more importantly, the "shrinking table" may come faster. In fact, on December 18, 2021, Federal Reserve Governor Waller released the signal of raising interest rates ahead of schedule in March and then shrinking the table (around June at the earliest), but the market didn't take it seriously at that time. According to the minutes of the meeting, participants believe that the current economic outlook of the United States is stronger than expected, and compared with the last time when monetary policy normalization began, inflation is higher and the labor market is tighter. They also note that the Fed's balance sheet, both aggregate and relative to nominal GDP, is much larger than at the end of 2014 when QE3 ended. The minutes also show that participants discussed the appropriate conditions and timing for launching the "reduced table", and how this time it may be different from previous experience. Almost all participants believe that it may be appropriate to start "shrinking the table" at some point after raising interest rates. However, participants also believe that compared with past experience, the appropriate time to start the "scale-down" may be closer to the time point of the first interest rate hike (the last time the scale-down started two years after the interest rate hike). Many others believe that the balance sheet may shrink faster than during the last normalization. Although the Fed is optimistic about the recovery of the US economy, it believes that there is an upward risk to inflation. What makes the market expectation change greatly is to "shrink the table". According to statistics, the minutes of the meeting mentioned thatBalance sheet 26 times in total, and mentions"Runoff" is also as high as 10 times. Previously, I once explained to everyone that reducing the number of bond buying is equivalent to tightening the faucet, so accelerating reducing is accelerating tightening the faucet, and in essence, it is still releasing water. For financial markets,What is really terrible is to shrink the watch, because it is called pumping water. ​Affected by this,The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose above 1.7%, the highest level since April last year.The market panic index VIX also closed up 16.68%, and the three major stock indexes fell sharply overnight, especially the Nasdaq index closed down 3.34%, mainly because investors were worried about the profitability of high-growth technology stocks under the upward pressure of US bond yields, and chip and software stocks continued to fall, and their sectors fell together, which eventually caused the Nasdaq to fall much higher than Dow Jones and S&P.​​ ​Of course, the precious metal market is inevitably affected. After the release of small non-agricultural ADP data overnight, the resistance of gold price hit 1830 USD/oz again failed, and then accelerated after the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. As of the opening of North America, the price had tested the bottom support of the daily level channel near 1785. ​As shown in the above figure, the starting point of this round of gold rise is at 1752 of the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting on December 15th, that is to say, if the daily level cannot hold the support of 1785, it will open up the space to go down to 1750-60.​ ​Then, under the circumstances that small non-agriculture has already been off the charts, there will be non-agriculture tomorrow, and the market has already started to price the Fed to raise interest rates ahead of time, or even shrink the table ahead of time, is the cross-year market (pictured above) that we counted before aborted? Not necessarily. The answer, wait for the open class tomorrow night to solve your doubts. $黄金主连 2202(GCmain)$   $WTI原油主连 2202(CLmain)$   $A50指数主连 2201(CNmain)$   $恒生科技指数主连 2201(HTImain)$   $恒生指数主连 2201(HSImain)$   $NQ100指数主连 2203(NQmain)$
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      The minutes of the meeting discussed the reduction of the table, the market immediately knelt down!
    • 许亚鑫·2021-12-23许亚鑫

      Biden can still salvage his Build Back Better bill,The market was reinvigorated

      Overnight, affected by the news that the 3B bill will still be passed in Congress as planned, the three major US stock indexes rebounded collectively. "I still think it is possible to pass the Build Back a Better Future plan," Biden told reporters at the White House. He noted that Goldman Sachs lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth in 2022 after Manchin announced his opposition to the plan on Sunday. Biden once again called this legislation a means to curb rising inflation. "Everything in this bill will reduce the prices and costs that the middle class and the working class bear," he said. "Me and Senator Manchin will make a difference." ​​Before the North American market, the annualized quarterly rate of GDP in the third quarter announced by the United States was 2.3%, which was higher than the expected 2.1%. Meanwhile, the quarterly rate of PCE in the third quarter was 5.3% annualized, while that of core PEC was 4.6%. However, after the data was released, the whole financial market... hardly reacted, whether it was the US dollar index or gold, silver and crude oil. There is no doubt that high inflation has become the main "excuse" for the Federal Reserve to speed up debt reduction and even to speed up interest rate hikes. In November, the CPI of the United States and Britain has reached 6.8% and 5.1%, setting 40-year highs and 10-year highs respectively. A recent study shows that more than half of the 59 economies, which account for 96% of the global economy, are now mired in inflation of more than 4%.There are increasing signs that this round of inflation is not a short-term phenomenon. ​​ ​ During the day, the volume of the A share market was 1,062.4 billion, among which, the film and television animation, Chinese medicine, internet, animal husbandry and fishery and rubber industries were among the top gainers, while automobile services, real estate, heavy machinery and metal products were in adjustment. The comparison between the ups and downs of the markete is 2093 compared with 2002, and the market performance is very stable. From a macro perspective, what will we do next year? What can we expect from the A50?Ning Jizhe, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, also gave us some clear clues. I believes that if there is no accident, the RRR cut and interest rate cut we saw in December will probably be staged again in the first quarter of next year, and stabilizing the economy has become the main tone in 2022. Or to put it another way, over the years, we have once again emphasized "taking economic construction as the center". The subtext of this sentence is,If other problems conflict with economic construction, priority should be given to solving economic construction problems. If it repeats itself,  That must be a big plus for the A50 $China A50 Index - main 2112(CNmain)$   $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2203(ESmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2202(CLmain)$   $Gold - main 2202(GCmain)$
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      Biden can still salvage his Build Back Better bill,The market was reinvigorated
    • 许亚鑫·2021-12-21许亚鑫

      The market is frightened, but gold is still expected to breakout

      Dear Tiger Friends, Hello! The annual voting has started again. I hope that when you watch the article, you can use your fingers to praise it, and Xu Dao will strive to bring more wonderful opinions to you in the future. The voting entrance is here:The selection of the most popular tiger friends in the tiger community began​ Last week, at the end of the Super Central Bank Week, the Federal Reserve decided to speed up debt reduction, while the Bank of England pulled the trigger for raising interest rates. This week, we are about to usher in Christmas Week, because the European and American markets will be closed early due to holidays.It is expected that the overall volatility of the market will be limited.​​ ​As shown in the above figure, as my writing, the opening of US stocks is still adjusting, and the VIX panic index has climbed to nearly 20%. This wave of selling is actually related to some related comments made by Fed officials last Friday.​​ ​Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that after deciding to end the asset purchase program early, the Fed may start raising interest rates as early as the March 15-16 meeting to curb "alarmingly high" inflation. In addition, Waller also advocatesThe Fed could decide to start shrinking its huge balance sheet at one or two interest rate hike meetings after raising interest rates, allowing maturing securities to flow out. Xu Dao believes that accelerating debt reduction has become an established fact, and the time node will end in March next year, so it is unlikely that this process will be shortened again. The focus of the market began to turn to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at the end of debt contraction. How can Waller not only break the news to raise interest rates ahead of schedule, but also reduce the table?​​ ​This directly scares the market.As shown in the above figure, the current market price is generally expected that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May-June next year, while Waller hints that this time node can be advanced to March. Of course, Xu Dao believes that a more important factor leading to the warming of market risk aversion is that the previous "3B" bill could not be passed around Christmas.​​ I don't know who gave Joe Manchin such courage that these interview comments were not notified to the White House or the top Democrats in Congress in advance. Since Republicans are opposed to this bill, This means that Manchin currently holds the most crucial vote in the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate. If this doesn't work out...... What do you think, If the "3B" bill fails, it means that the mid-term election next year may cause the Democratic Party to lose control of the House of Representatives, which will lead to the defeat of the presidential election in 2024. As the saying goes, those who block people's money are like that. Xu Dao is very worried about his personal safety, so he specially left a photo of him in today's courseware. Back to the A-share market, today's adjustment is nearing completion in terms of hourly level.If we take advantage of a low opening and bottom tomorrow morning, we are expected to have a short-term low. In fact, after a lapse of 19 months, Yang Ma also lowered the one-year LPR for the first time, from 3.85% to 3.80%, but remained unchanged at 4.65% in the five-year period. It should be said that in December, the central government lowered the RRR, cut interest rates and raised the foreign exchange deposit reserve frequently. Combined with the interpretation of the previous economic work conference, it is not difficult to see that the shift of monetary policy and the shift of the Federal Reserve are actually "coincidentally consistent", only one to the left and the other to the right, commonly known as counter-cyclical regulation.​​ ​Of course, interest rate cuts are essentially good for the stock market, otherwise we can't see the red plate circled in the figure. As for today's adjustment, besides some emotional transmission in overseas markets, it is also related to the big moves made by supervision. In view of the sensitivity of this part of the content, Xu Dao can only make some interpretations on the live broadcast,。 $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2203(NQmain)$   $Gold - main 2202(GCmain)$   $Light Crude Oil - main 2202(CLmain)$  $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2203(ESmain)$   $Volatility Index - main 2112(VIXmain)$
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      The market is frightened, but gold is still expected to breakout
       
       
       
       

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