To The Moon

Recently, it is not a good time for investors who are long in inflation (commodities). Several major categories of commodities have been greatly adjusted one after another.I will share the specific market outlook with you in the post, and the specific trading opportunities will be explained in detail in the live broadcast on Thursday (7th) evening, so pay more attention.

Judging from the current trend of US stock indexes, the expectation of raising interest rates can no longer defeat US stocks, so the Federal Reserve is no longer worried about the impact of subsequent tightening policies on the stock market in theory, thus suppressing inflation data. Then it is undoubtedly a potential negative for commodities. However, historically, suppressing inflation by policies is usually not achieved overnight, but a process of accumulation (to suppress market expectations of inflation and gradually increase the cost of hoarding goods). Therefore, in this process, there will still be many opportunities for goods to do more after adjustment, and everyone can grasp it well, and the benefits will be ok.

I. Agricultural Products

The USDA crop planting area intention report just released on Friday at the end of March determines the staged trend of agricultural products.Therefore, as long as the prices of various agricultural products do not hit the high point in March, they will be bearish in stages until May-June.​

It is normal for agricultural products to have high prices and increased supply. However, due to the simultaneous increase in the cost of fertilizer land, the planting cost will further increase,At present, the adjustment of agricultural products is actually the process in which the market expects the current planting cost of agricultural products, so the adjustment range is not easy to guess. In May-June, after the planting area is determined, this part of the cost will be preliminarily finalized, and the overall price of agricultural products will have a bottom line. The subsequent increase is the expectation of planting weather in the United States. Therefore, the recent decline of agricultural products is not necessarily the formation of a historical peak, and it is very likely that there will be another pulse opportunity due to weather problems in the future, so we still need to pay attention to it.

Second, crude oil

With the United States releasing strategic oil reserves again and the situation in Russia and Ukraine easing, oil prices will gradually weaken. The release of strategic oil reserves has a short-term suppression effect on oil prices, especially the release figure released this time is almost one-third of the US reserves. If the release of other allies is combined, the short-term impact on oil prices cannot be ignored.As for the medium-term decline, it is expected to be around US $75. After all, after the strategic oil reserves are thrown out, they will be replenished in the future. The more they are thrown, the stronger the support for future oil prices. Therefore, if there is no substantial increase in crude oil facilities, then oil prices do not need to be particularly pessimistic. But big shocks are inevitable.

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​In the short-term strategy, if the oil price effectively falls through the 40-day moving average (subject to the closing price), it can be bearish in stages, and it is still on the edge at present, so it is necessary to pay attention to the test. Tiger friends who insist on doing more should also take this line as the basis for stop loss and deal with the market carefully.​

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