To The Moon

With Palantir$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ stock down sharply since this time last year, it seems the PLTR skeptics were winning on Wall Street. However, little by little, bulls are showing up again. Could this be an inflection point and an opportunity to buy PLTR?

Software company Palantir Technologies is a retail-investor darling that has been cruelly punished since last year. Much of PLTR’s drop can be pinned on the high multiples at which the stock had been trading. Because it’s an aggressive, high-growth stock, recent macroeconomic events have been weighing heavily on Palantir's shares’ performance. Investors have been seeking more conservative positions with less interest rate exposure and moving away from riskier stocks like PLTR. Palantir needs to prove their fundamentals are in order to regain investors' confidence.

It seems, however, that the first steps are being taken towards that end. And recently, more PLTR bulls have begun to come out of the woodwork on Wall Street. Could this be an indication that now is a favorable time to buy Palantir shares?

The target of much skepticism from Wall Street, Palantir stock currently has a slightly bearish consensus rating coming from analysts. The average rating on the stock is a “hold.” Having dropped more than 60% from November of 2021 to March this year, however, Palantir shares’ reaching a more modest valuation may signal a good opportunity to invest in the company today.

This is precisely the narrative laid out by Piper Sandler analyst Weston Twigg, who started to cover Palantir a few weeks ago. He offered a “buy” rating and a price target of $15. According to Twigg, Palantir, which is now trading at 9-10x sales over the next twelve months, now has its multiples in line with other fast-growing software stocks.

But Twigg's bullishness stems not only from his valuation of PLTR. The analyst believes that Palantir combines software, artificial intelligence, and data into a powerful, central IT solution for both commercial and government clients. He also thinks that Palantir's annual revenue growth target of 30% is achievable, given its recent history of consistent results – in 2021 alone, Palantir posted an impressive 41% top-line growth.

Finally, the analyst sees Palantir’s sales and marketing growth initiatives paying off. The company is reporting more than 100% growth in U.S. commercial revenues in 2021, and it expects that revenue stream to double again this year. And in the near term, Palantir may benefit from increased government business, due to the fallout from Russia's war against Ukraine.

Some new bullishness on PLTR was seen coming from Morgan Stanley as well. Upgrading Palantir shares from “sell” to “hold,” analyst Keith Weiss set his fair price target on Palantir at $16. That’s a bit higher even than Piper Sandler's bullish price target. Weiss’s justification is also based on valuation. The analyst believes that Palantir’s unsustainable high operating margin seems to be priced into the stock after the massive sell-off that’s occurred since last November.

Plenty of bears are still holding strong, though. Many point to decelerating growth in Palantir’s government business segment. RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria, who has a “sell” rating and a price target of $9 on Palantir, believes that government business is the company's strongest segment, and the slow down there remains a concern. Meanwhile, Citi analyst Tyler Radke, also offering a “sell” rating and setting a $10 price target, fears that if revenues from the government business do not improve, there’s a potential risk to PLTR’s guidance.

March was a good month for Palantir that followed on the heels of several months of free-fall. Palantir shares closed up 12% for March, and they rose 30% from March 14 through to the beginning of April.

While the macro environment remains a concern, some investors are seeing huge potential in the cyber defense and software analytics sector. There’s plenty of room for short-term growth as demand for Palantir’s products increases on account of the Ukraine crisis.

Even though the markets still appear shaky, Palantir’s 60% drop since its all-time-highs in January of last year may indicate the stock has suffered enough from its stretched valuation. Currently trading at a P/E of 92x, the stock is still more than 360% above the sector average of 19x times, and the market is paying about 15x PLTR’s estimated 2022 revenue growth. But keep in mind that this is not unusual for a stock that is priced according to aggressive predicted growth.

Palantir's goal of annual revenue growth of 30% or more by 2025 seems to be in line with the latest reported results. In 2021, the company reported 41% growth and investments in sales and marketing teams should intensify growth for the next few years.

Even though PLTR has a negative EBITDA, much of this negativity is driven by the high costs of stock-based compensation. And the company’s high operating costs, another major concern for investors, seem to be reaching more reasonable levels. This trend is evidenced by the significant jump in operating margins Palantir experienced from 2020 to 2021 - that margin jumped from, 17% to 31% in just one year.

If Palantir continues to report solid revenues and healthier margins, its business should reach profitability in the not-too-distant future. And that would be a positive development for Palantir's shares.