To The Moon

In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the 10th time in just over a year. The Fed fund rate now stands at a target range of 5%-5.25%, which is the highest it has been since August 2007.Source: Bloomberg During the news conference that followed the meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed that "a decision on a pause was not made today." This is despite the omission of a sentence stating that “the Committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate." It appears that the Fed has finally reached the terminal rates it had set out to achieve. S&P 500 & Nasdaq Index, Source: Bloomberg The bond markets initially priced a rate hike in the June Fed meeting. However, the sentiment soon changed into a likely rate pause

The fluctuation of U.S. bonds in the past two days is very high, which can be summarized as the current long-empty reaction to the interest rate of U.S. bonds And other market indexes/behaviours from ETFs like $Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares(SOXL)$ $Nasdaq100 Bull 3X ETF(TQQQ)$ $Nasdaq100 Bear 3X ETF(SQQQ)$ is somewhat bull trend Weghy U.S. debt: U.S. debt ceiling + inflation does not fall Liduo U.S. debt: company thunderstorm + corporate recession + inflation decline In the regional bank incident that broke out in March, a total of three banks had problem

Follow me at @Alice Arnault to learn more Saw quite a number of news stories which talk about valuation, so hope to share a bit on this Relative Valuation - estimates the value of an asset by looking at the pricing of assets relative to a common variable like earnings, cash flows, book value or sales. • Most common multiples: P/E, EV/EBITDA, Price/Book Value, EV/Sales, PEG ratio, free cash flow yield, dividend yield Case: In 2020, the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index was around 22x, while the historical average is about 15x. This suggested that the market might have been overvalued at that time. • Historical analysis: how does current pricing compare to history Quant: In 2007, just before the financial crisis

Beware of second-order impact In Budget 2023, the Singapore government has noble intentions to fight inflation. However, the Budget measures could drive up inflation instead of bring it down. This is due to the second-order impact from measures such as cash handouts and higher taxes. Here are my insights: Inflation Drivers Demand-pull inflation Wage-push inflation Higher HDB Grant Higher property taxes Higher tobacco tax Disinflation Driver Boosting innovation and productivity Inflation Drivers Demand-pull inflation Singapore's 2023 Budget plans to give up to S$9.6 billion in handouts. Total cash distributed to eligible residents would be up to S$1,300 in 2023. In total, S$600 worth of CDC vouchers will be granted to Singapore households in 2023 and 2024.

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I use Facebook and Messenger daily. Not really sure why Meta's fell so much. Meta and other social apps actually can't really make much money on their own. They depend heavily on advertising for revenue. With the recent economic weakness and rising inflation, I suppose a lot of changes have been made by companies to cut costs and advertising would be one of the first few.