To The Moon

Wednesday's rise of US stocks seemed to make people forget the suffering of the bear market. $DJIA(.DJI)$ ,$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ ,$S&P 500(.SPX)$.

Various indexes rose, with clean green energy ranking the first rise for 3,52%.

Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index VIX also rose 3.51% to 31.

According to the CNN' Fear and Greed Index, the current market sentiment is Extreme Fear.

This may indicates that the market is still very pessimistic, and the US stock market seems to have not hit the bottom under the expectation of depression and inflation.

Yesterday, I shared two indicators to confirm a bottom： 2 Ways to Confirm a Market Bottom & 3 Levels to Buy

Today, I want share Oppenheimer's technical analysis team‘s tracking of 10 bottom indicators and which found that the stock market is close to 70% of its bottom.

Analyst ARI Wald said: "in our stock market bottom checing list, 7 of the 10 indicators have met the preset values, but these values are not as extreme as in 2009 or 2020."

There are still 3 indicators that fail to reach the preset values, namely, 1) the duration from peak to bottom, 2)the 52 week net high of the New York Stock Exchange, and 3) the 10 day average put / call option ratio .

See the following chart for details:

Wald said: "according to our analysis, although the market performs worst when the interest rate exceeds 10%, the forward return has been lower than the average level. When the interest rate is lower than 10% (currently 1.75%), the forward return can better reflect the current situation and is closer to the average value of all periods."

He also said: "there was a sell-off in the stock market after the interest rate hike last week. We don't think it is a big problem, because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by at least 75 basis points on november15,1994. The S & P index fell by 4% in the following week, but it bottomed out in the next two weeks, and then rebounded strongly in 1995."

According to the chart, It seems that after the 75bp interest rate increase, the average performance of the market in 13 weeks and 26W was around 4%, and the average performance in 52w is 9.7%.

Do you think the market will come out of the bottom soon?