To The Moon

The illusion of a rise has been shattered.

1

I was thinking of taking a vacation on Labor Day, but when I saw $Estee Lauder(EL)$ release earnings, I lost my nerve.

The company cut its full-year profit forecast, with sales growth slowing to 7-9% from 13%-16%. Adjusted profit for the full year was $7.05 to $7.15 a share, compared with an earlier estimate of $7.43 to $7.58. Shares fell 10 per cent in pre-market trading after the results were released. ​In August 2020 earnings were down 6.7%.

Estee Lauder said the lower sales forecast was mainly due to COVID-19 restrictions and the dispute between Russia and Ukraine. It is a very intuitive reflection of how serious the supply chain disruption caused by the epidemic and the Russia-Ukraine problem is.

From $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ 14% drop to Estee Lauder's 10% drop, what about consumer earnings? Shorting is the way to go.

2

$AMD(AMD)$ reports earnings after the bell Tuesday. Unlike the pre-earnings moves of the past few weeks, bulk orders are doing more straddling and there are few spread strategies with reference.

According to the large order forecast, the lower limit of this earnings report is $70 ~ $75, and if it rises, the range is more than 4%.

I can understand why bulk orders don't anticipate. Earnings are only a small factor in determining the direction of stock prices at tomorrow's FOMC meeting.

Look to your peers for advice. But nvidia's bulk order didn't reveal much. While there are many bulk orders with strike prices that look ridiculous, those look more like close than opening orders.