To The Moon

The biggest mystery discovered this year is that no matter how bad the economy is, the stock market is bound to rally at the end of the month. We can turn over the K line at the end of January, February and March, very magical.

Some people have done relevant research statistics, found that the last day of the month and the next three days of the next month, stock prices and earnings tend to rise. From 1987 to 2005, all of the excess market gains occurred within this four-day range.

So don't ask why FB is up 17%. I wouldn't be surprised if the market continued to rise tonight, even though earnings and the economic outlook are still pretty bleak.$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$

The big difference between this week's trading results and last week's is that the biggest profits come not after the results, but before them.

Last week's ugly earnings reports from Netflix and mining companies sent money fleeing early. When the last big S&P 500 company, FB, reported earnings, shares rose. Much like last quarter's SNAP earnings report.

So will FB go the same way as SNAP? We'll see what happens later.

Based on bulk orders and fundamentals, this week analyzed several company earnings: FB, Qualcomm, PYPL, Apple, INTC, CVX

These large orders have a common rule of accuracy: Call spread strategy > PUT strategy.

In fact, the accuracy of put strike price at the beginning of the week is ok: $FB 20220715 175.0 PUT$  $FB 20230120 160.0 PUT$   $FB 20220715 185.0 PUT$

FB dipped as low as 169 before earnings, reaching the target point ahead of schedule.

The problem is that markets collapse and panic sets in. This week saw a lot of big put orders added on the night before earnings, with strike prices ridiculously low. Yet a further plunge did not occur.

I wonder if Netflix had dropped to 300 before earnings, would there have been a 35% drop on earnings day?

In contrast, call-related strategies are highly accurate because they bounce back more easily than they break out. Resistance levels are invisible walls:

So this week's lesson can be summed up as follows: If stocks fall early and overdraft earnings expectations, most of the put can be liquidated before earnings. It is better to change to call spread strategy.

In fact, last quarter bet ali financial results is this idea, in the performance of everyone has a consensus, guess the top of the winning rate is higher. However, I didn't change my thinking in time this quarter because I got FB put in advance and the successful experience of NFLX.

Have a good weekend!